(Incomplete) Draft Notes 2006
Sometime, about halfway through the draft, I got an IM asking if this was my favorite day of the year. “To prospect watchers, it’s like Christmas,” I said, “except this year I got clothes I won’t wear and gift cards I’m desperately trying to find a use for.”
About seven hours later, that statement feels about right for the most part. If we’re to break it down by the stages of grief, I’ve been bouncing back and forth between general numbness and searching for reasoning of any sort. I was in the same position after the first day last year, but we managed to grab some decent slipping talent there, like Kahn and Varvaro. We didn’t pick nearly as many pitchers, except early on, but a lot of the guys picked were under the radar. Much like Seahawks fans have to trust Ruskell to bring them through, I had to put my faith in Fontaine that he was taking the best player on his board, and that it’s just possible that he was picking them based on criteria that others weren’t paying as much attention to. The jury’s still out on ‘05, but Tui, Rob Johnson, and Lowe are all interesting prospects, and Boucher, Dominguez, Saunders, Fillinger, Mumba Rivera, and Harold Williams have all shown promise at times. Back in ’04, a lot of those guys looked like odd picks, being either reaches or guys with some question marks as to their ability or experience.
Yes, we reached a lot, but the talent in this draft wasn’t considered to be anything great to begin with, so the gap separating the guys who made the cut and the guys who didn’t may be rather small. Yes, we drafted a lot of pitchers, but as Manuel pointed out in a BA chat, have you seen the system’s pitching recently? Inland Empire is your only bright spot as a team, and a lot of the prospects there are relievers who have moved on. Even the Sixers had issues with walks. As for the rest of the system, the Rainiers haven’t lived up to expectations or been able to find the strike zone with any regularity, San Antonio has been split evenly between the capable and the inept in all areas and has dealt with some of the pains of inexperienced pitchers making a big jump, and Wisconsin is among the league leaders in all the wrong categories, and would probably lead them all if not for Woerman and a few flashes of brilliance elsewhere. There is pitching on the way from the summer leagues, but it still needs more time and something had to be done now. San Antonio and Wisconsin still need more inexperienced hitters of Wisconsin will adjust as the weather gets warmer. Should I demand more? Probably, but given that pitching was the strength of the draft, it was a weak class as a whole, and that the M’s weren’t keen on getting into any lengthy negotiations (a drawback), I don’t know how much more we could’ve gotten. You can only hope that what hitters we do have pick it up, or that there’s someone available tomorrow (and curse you BoSox for picking Lars Anderson after I had left the computer).
I had forgotten how much Blogger hates… well, blogging, particularly live blogging, so here’s the rundown….
1. Brandon Morrow, RHP, R-R, 6-3, 190, 21, University of California, Rohnert Park, CA
I guess I have to come to terms with the idea that Miller’s demands were unreasonable and likely to draw out a long time, and that they were concerned with Lincecum’s durability and command, so Morrow was the top guy still available on their board. I’ve listened to the conference call now, and while it’s strikingly different from the leader personality you had in Clement from last year, I did come away feeling better about a few things that concerned me. For one, his poor results from earlier in his college career were the result of a loss of command from his jump in velocity. He responded to it by working out more to strengthen his shoulder to where he didn’t get that same soreness after pitching, and I think that speaks well to his conditioning habits, which are sometimes a concern with players. The other was his inconsistent secondary stuff, which he said he fixed by committing to the slider as his breaking pitch midseason, instead of trying to switch between a few different pitches. Both those factors help him in the long run. I’m not an expert on pitching motions or anything, but watching the video, his motion looks good, consistent, and repeatable, though he does show the ball pretty early. He doesn’t jerk his head during delivery or seem to loss his balance at any point, though sometimes his momentum seems to carry him a bit farther down the mound than you’d like. It’s a very centered motion, and should prove to be a healthy one.
2. Chris Tillman, RHP, R-R, 6-5, 195, 18, Fountain Valley HS, Fountain Valley, CA
This was the other pick that was at least on the radar. Tillman was one of a number of guys selected who had better seasons last year, though he still remained high on the charts for prep prospects in California. His delivery on the videos is also rather smooth and isn’t violent at all. His pitches seem to have a strong downward plane to them, but I was also noticing that his release looked a little high in some places, which could mean he’s letting go a little early. He was a bit off mark in his location, but younger guys can get by for that. He’s said to have a 90-94 mph fastball and a curve that could turn into a plus offering as well. It’s a solid two pitch combo right there, but in his attempts to get a third pitch, he’s started throwing a split and scouts don’t like that with younger elbows. I don’t know if that’s causing any problems yet, but they might get him on a two-seamer once he’s in the system. There were some questions about his willingness to maintain stuff late into games, but he seems pretty focused on baseball and may react differently when doing it all the time against advanced competition.
3. Tony Butler, LHP, L-L, 6-7, 205, 18, Oak Creek HS, Oak Creek, WI
In past years, I might accuse the M’s of going into a tall lefty swoon, but they did pass over Miller, and may be right to think that Butler could improve his velocity with a move to a better climate and a more active pitching regiment. Watching some (limited) videos on him, he starts off slow and then kind of has something of a pounce in his forward motion that moves at a faster rate. He seems pretty well balanced for a big guy, and moves very little upon landing. His pitches seem to sink, which is good, but I’m not too sure about everything in his delivery. It looks to be less over-the-top than that of Tillman and Morrow, more of a 3/4th release. Seems to have added some velocity in each of the past few years and it’s reasonable to think there’s more there. He’s a smart, well-balanced kid and you kind of wonder why he wasn’t ranked higher.
4. Enrique Orta, RHP, R-R, 6-2, 195, 21, University of Miami, Miami, FL
Here’s the big question mark. He had a decent year last year, posting a 1.35 WHIP, though I don’t like the 7K/9 combined with the 4BB/9. There’s not much written on him, because he gave up more hits this year while picking up another K per nine. The motion’s kind of uninspired, which makes you wonder if there’s more there, but nothing really stands out otherwise. This is the “I hope they know what they’re doing” pick for me.
5. Nathan Adcock, RHP, R-R, 6-4, 185, 18, North Hardin HS, Vine Grove, KY
Just prior to the selection, Jason made some comment to me about how good the recent fifth-round picks have been for the Mariners, yielding Stephen Kahn and Mark Lowe in the past two years. The Mariners have been following Adcock closely this season, and seemingly with good reason. He’s considered to be one of the top prep prospects in the state, and had tied his school’s strikeout record (seventeen in a game) at least three times this year, punching out 140 batters total in 80.2 innings pitched. He’s reaching the low-90s already (already a few more MPH than last year) and has said that he liked it when the scouts are watching him because it pumps him up to do even better. He fits the old Mariners profile of being an all-around good scout (perfect attendance and extracurricular activities already noted), but he also seems to have a solid attitude, a competitive nature, and good stuff to boot.
6. Adam Moore, C, R-R, 6-2, 220, 22, University of Texas, Mineola, TX
7. Doug Fister, RHP, R-R, 6-8, 195, 22, Fresno State University, Merced, CA
8. Steve Richard, RHP, R-R, 6-2, 230, 20, University of Clemson, Billerica, MA
9. Justin Souza, RHP, R-R, 6-1, 190, 20, Sacramento CC, Galt, CA
10. Chris Minaker, SS, R-R, 6-0, 195, 22, Stanford University, Lynnwood, WA
11. Aaron Solomon, RHP, R-R, 6-4, 205, 20, Cumberland University, Layton, UT
12. Gavin Dickey, LF, R-R, 5-11, 205, 22, University of Florida, Tallahassee, FL
13. Joseph Kantakevich, RHP, R-R, 6-2, 195, 22, William and Mary College, Rockville, MD
14. Jared Baehl, 3B, R-R, 6-2, 200, 18, North Posey HS, Poseyville, IN
15. Andrew Fiorenza, RHP, R-R6-1, 205, 21, Clemson University, Atlanta, GA
16. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP, R-R, 6-2, 190, 21, University of Portland, Keizer, OR
17. Daniel Runzler, LHP, L-L, 6-5, 210, 21, UC, Riverside, Simi Valley, CA
18. Kameron Mickolio, RHP, R-R, 6-9, 255, 22, Utah Valley St. College, Orem, UT
To be completed at a later date.
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The Night Before Christmas Draft Day
I've been pretty busy, but before I cash it in for the night, I wanted to go over a few things.
* There are a couple of interesting notes I wanted to get in on the 2005 DFEs that hasn't quite made it to press yet.
--LHP Will Brown tossed a seven-inning no-hitter in high school, twelve Ks and four walks. He threw 90-92 when he was pitching for Downey High School, and mixes three pitches.
--C Travis Scott was primarily a first baseman, near as I can figure, and backed up at catcher, otherwise there's no way he could've played in as many games as he did. He was right at the top in just about every offensive category for the Lincoln Land CC Loggers for the past two years. Curiiously, his high school career contains more info on him as a basketball player, even though he seems to have been named to the first-team for the state.
--1B Joe White is a two-way player who hits lefty for some power and is less spectacular on the mound. He led his high school team to a final four appearance followed by an elite eight showing before going to Georgia Perimeter. The early rumbling was that, due to his superior hitting ability and strong arm, they'd try him behind the plate, but it remains to be seen if they're still going with that thought. A switch of positions between Scott and White wouldn't be bad.
* My board right now is looking like Lincecum, Hochevar, Miller, Lincoln, and Scherzer for the top five.
--I'll admit to being a bit of a local homer when it comes to Lince, but he's a unique case with superior talent, and at this point, I believe that if he's survived with this motion and no noticable soreness or complaints, even considering his height, he'll be fine. The walks don't concern me as much as they seem to others either. He has the potential to be truly dominant, and I would give strong consideration to him even if I was convinced he had to sit out the rest of the season (which I'm not, heck, just throw him in relief ala Thomas last year).
--Hochevar is another interesting pick. He was already a top level talent last year, but the layoff seems to have also helped him pick up a little velocity, though the polish isn't quite back yet. I would be higher on him, but to be honest, I'm a little nervous about pitchers who take the better part of a year off and then come back throwing full strength re: Wade Thompsen last year. Boras holding out also spooks me, just a little bit.
--Left-handers and Safeco are a good mix, and while there are inherent risks with a lot of these picks, the consensus is that Miller's basement (opposite of ceiling, for lack of a better term) at least places him in the rotation. Good fastball, great slider, still working on another pitch. The contract demands for him are even more scary in terms of money, but if he's on the board and the other two are gone, you just can't pass on him.
--Lincoln is the best combination of stuff and polish, the guy who could probably be ready for rotation work a little sooner than some of the others. His velocity is above average, touching the higher end of the spectrum on occassion, and his curveball gets rave reviews. Combine that with his hitting ability, and he becomes a rather interesting pick, if you're a National League club, but he's a competitor, and that's a plus I can't ignore.
--Which is why I can't pass up on Scherzer if he comes by and the other four are gone. I realize that he's been injured, but mizzoufan came by
Detect-o-vision and added some additional insight on Scherzer's injuries, and that certainly helped. Realistically, there isn't a better combination of stuff and poise in the draft, or in a lot of other places you can look. The only question mark is what he'll do with the secondary pitches, and how his level of effort in his pitching motion will affect him in the long-run.
* Beyond that, I'll concede that Morrow isn't bad, but health is another worry I have for him and comparing his numbers to Lince's within the Pac-10, well... The velocity puts him on the map, but he's a guy who broke out this season and still has some inconsistency in his pitching. I won't throw a fit if they pick him, unless he's picked over the top four I have (or, God forbid, Greg Reynolds is our number one). I liked Kershaw and Drabek, but I've recently been bludgeoned with the notion that all the college guys have gotten over the biggest injury hurdle, and considering the M's are going to need pitching sooner rather than later and can't really afford to blow this pick, I've since agreed with that assessment. For me to take either, I'd have to be convinced that Matsuzaka was in the bag for the offseason and Cruceta/Blackley(/Nags/Livingston) were realistic options to fill out the rotation if need be. That's not to say I'm not convinced, but having that extra arm is always a bonus.
* The draft has turned wacky this year. While last year Calis managed to pick something like the top ten or fifteen with perfect accuracy, bets seem to be off this year, and teams may not have decided yet whether money is going to be an issue or isn't. There are rumors of Longoria (pass), Reynolds (pass), and Drabek (maybe under different circumstances) going in the top four somewhere, and they're equally balanced by rumors that everyone's grabbing the top pitchers leaving the M's to pick whatever's left over. I'm in no position to make predictions right now (I'm not even thinking about round two yet), but I'm eager to see how it all plays out and am hoping that it works in our favor.
* Tempering the draft enthusiasm, I have articles on
Brien Taylor, bricklayer,
Ryan Anderson, aspiring steak chef, and an old one I'm digging out of the archives on
Roger Salkeld, which I intended to post in a News Around the Minors segment, but don't know that I ever did.
I'll be on all three messengers I use from about ten AM on. I might be scouring the web for bits and pieces while I'm on, but if you want to shoot me a question or vent, I'll be here. I considered claiming a "religious holiday", but on 6/06/06? Nah. My co-workers know I'm crazy for this kind of thing, so we'll just leave it at that.
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