Mariner Minors
Relevant questions about Mariners prospects from the
Northwest League chat...
Q: Tom McCullough from York PA asks:
Everett 2B3B Yung-chi Chen may have been outshone by Asdrubal Cabrera but Chen's numbers at age 21 look good. Is he a prospect to watch?
A: Will Kimmey: Managers liked his defense, and Chen showed more strength than the average youngster who pops in from the Far East. He's another guy in that 21-30 range for me because despite his age (21), strength and experience (he played for Taiwan in the Olympics), he didn't show enough power to be a third baseman at more advanced levels.
Q: Kyle Barrett from Fairfax, Va asks:
Can you give us a list of some players that were worthy of making the list but may have just missed making the cut?
A: Will Kimmey: I've mentioned a lot of names thus far, but another is Gregorio Petit, the SS for Vancouver. He's 20 and still needs to grasp the strikezone concept, but plays defense like you might expect a young infielder signed out of Venezuela to do so. His manager said if Petit was at a JC, he could be a top 5 round draft pick. Oswaldo Navarro, the 2B at Everett, was close as well and for similar reasons.
Q: Chad Goldberg from Washington, DC asks:
Will-If you had to compare the NWL to its nearest counterpart, the NY-Penn League, which league do you feel was stronger overall in 2004?
A: Will Kimmey: Depth-wise the NY-P wins because it has almost twice as many teams. As far as star and impact potential--I like the NWL for Herrera, Harvey, Gonzalez, Tuiasosopo, Whitaker a bit more, regardless of what my colleague Aaron Fitt says.
Q: JWB from Seattle asks:
Where would you expect Matt Tuiasosopo to be over the next year? Both organizationally and on the playing field.
A: Will Kimmey: He's a special talent. He's built as a SS in the mold of an A-Rod or Cal Ripken, and curse anyone who compares his future to those guys--because those are Hall of Famers. But you are still talking about a big, athletic SS who can hit for power and average. Even if he moves to 3B, you're still looking at a guy with some all-star potential. Managers were impressed by his talents. I'll wager he starts in low A and spends a year there. The Washington native won't mind Wisconsin's cold as much as other might, so he could have a fine year. Still, it was curious that if the Mariners like this guy enough to spend that kind of coin on him in the 3rd round that they didn't feel they could move Chen or Navarro or someone around so he could play the field.
Q: James from Guthrie OK asks:
Last question Will. Asdrubal Cabrera will he one day backup, replace or neither Jose Lopez? Also Shawn Nottingham looked good at times your thought on him. Later. Have a good weekend.
A: Will Kimmey: Can you neither Jose Lopez? Just kidding there. I can see them as somewhat similar. Cabrera is a few years away, so perhaps you get two seasons or so of Lopez then deal one or the other depending on how each progresses. I know that's no really a fair answer, but their skills are pretty even, so you're judging a short-season guy versus one already in the majors. Nottingham seems more like a back of the rotation guys because he hasn't shown too much velo, but does have a nice change he can really locate. Add in a breaking ball, and I see the potential for a No. 4. His change is very effective vs. righthanders, who his .196 against him this year with lefties batting .258. Those reverse splits are always interesting.
I tried to ask if Jason Snyder had qualified or not there at the end, but they closed the chat soon after. What to say, well, I am surprised that they didn't suggest that Jose would shift positions and Asdrubal would play short, but then again it's not entirely certain what the next few years will be like for him. When Jose was coming up through the system, they thought they had a Neifi Perez type guy in him after Everett, but since that time his bat's improved dramatically while his defense has gone a little south. I see comparisons of Asdrubal to Jose fairly regularly, but Jose's career path hasn't exactly been something you could put money on. Looking at his season in Everett, few people would predict what he ended up doing to the Cal League. I think Asdrubal's bat, based off of this year and his VSL performance, might even out to what Jose's career minor league averages look like, but he's probably not going to bust out in the Cal League and then struggle a bit in Double-A. It's not always easy to predict what you'll end up with these VSL guys.
As for Nottingham, those splits actually aren't too unusual if you're comparing him to a pitcher like Travis Blackley. From what I remember, Blackley held righties to an average aroud or below .200 in Double-A, but left-handers were hitting .300+ against him. Odd, but true.
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Continuing the league by league breakdown, the
Top 20 Northwest League Prospects are up at Baseball America with
Tui as number five,
SS Asdrubal Cabrera coming in at eight, and
LHSP Shawn Nottingham at number fourteen.
Tui, we've already spoken about here before, but they add he was working on his defense daily.
Asdrubal, again, has his defense going for him and is above-average everywhere but the arm. He's also not described as being a base stealing threat, despite average speed, and I guess that showed up in his seven stolen bases versus five caught stealing. This is fairly consistent with his VSL numbers as well, when he was five-for-ten in stolen base attempts in just under 200 at-bats.
Nottingham was the n-th Mariners left-handed prospect to draw comparisons to Jamie Moyer and Travis Blackley. In all honesty, I'm not sure how they can rank him so low when he led the league in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts, but it could be his lack of "stuff". His velocity they said was 85-89, but I saw it crack 90 several times when I was up there and it didn't seem like it was down near 85 all too often, more like 87. Could just be the radar guns. Also odd to me was their praise for his change-up, when I thought his cut fastball looked downright dangerous when I saw him. Of course, there's the matter of sample sizes as well, and apparently I saw Aaron Jensen in one of the few games he could throw his 12-6 for strikes.
If you want a better answer on Nottingham, or why guys like Jason Snyder, Casey Craig, and Mumba Rivera weren't up there, check out the chat at
Baseball America tomorrow at 2 ET, 11 PT. I can't guarentee that you'll get an answer if you ask about those three not being on the list, but questions on Tui, Asdrubal, and The Sheriff are much more likely to get air time.
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Ask BA has a new question on everyone's favorite M's prospect...
Is it true that the slider the Mariners won't let Felix Hernandez throw could be his best pitch? That would give him what would appear to be three 70+ pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale, with the makings of a good change and the ability to throw them all for strikes. That seems like it would just be unfair. Will they let him start throwing the slider in the future, or will they encourage him to scrap the pitch altogether to help reduce stress on his arm? Could Felix Fantastico be No. 1 on the 2005 Top 100 Prospects list?
Kyle Crocker
Moscow, Idaho
I've heard the same thing. Not many people have seen Hernandez throw his slider, which reportedly has been clocked as high as 91 mph, but those who have say it may be better than his mid-90s fastball and knockout curveball, both of which are plus-plus pitches.
Hernandez has torn up the minors to this point without using the slider. He already may rely a little too much on his other breaking ball, especially with runners in scoring position. The Mariners haven't said if and when they'll let him go to the slider, but why fix something that obviously isn't broken?
As for the Top 100 list, Hernandez undoubtedly is the top pitching prospect in baseball. I think I'd take him over any hitter in the minors right now. But read on to see why he might not get the No. 1 spot . . .
If you don't want to click on over, the number one issue is Joe Mauer, who won't pass the 130 at-bat minimum Baseball America has as the seperating mark for rookies and non. They don't consider service time, so while Mauer has already passed the service time requirement by MLB standards and will technically not be a rookie next year, BA will still consider him.
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The
Arizona League / Gulf Coast League chat transcript is now complete.
Relevant info for M's fans:
Q: Klive from auburn asks:
Which Matt looks more promising so far, Bush or Tuiasasopo?
A: Allan Simpson: Tuiasosopo made a much stronger first impression, particularly with the bat. He's got a chance to be a big hitter with 30-homer potential. Bush doesn't have that kind of offensive potential, but is a much superior defender at this point with Gold Glove potential.
Q: Eric from Los Angeles asks:
OK, I know offensive statistics are not everything, but you have to explain how you can make Tuiassasopo your #1 prospect in the Arizona league, but leave Giants' prospect John Bowker completely off your list. Neither player played many games in Arizona (Tuiassaspo 20 games, Bowker 10), but Bowker outpaced your #1 guy in every meaningful category (.512.580.860 for Bowker [avgobpslg] vs. .412.528.721). Furthermore, when they both went to the NW League, Bowker continued to outperform Tuiassasopo by an even wider gap (.323.390.520 over 31 games for Bowker vs .248.336.386 for Tui over 29 games). Unless Bowker is completely incompetent as a fielder, doesn't he belong somewhere on that top 10? How do you make that decision?
A: Allan Simpson: Tuiasosopo played enough (56 plate appearances, or one per team game) to qualify for the list, Bowker didn't. Tui also is 18 years old, Bowker is 21. Both players moved to the Northwest League and had enough at-bats to qualify, and Tui made that list as well while Bowker did not crack the top 20 there either. Tui has a much higher upside, and that is the basis for the rankings. The sense I got on Bowker is he can swing the bat and has 15-homer potential, but he's just an adequate outfielder with a left fielder's arm.
Q: Dan Salazar from Phoenix asks:
Being a top draft pick, does that mean your automatically on the prospect list? Matt Bush (1st Rnd) sounds like a prospect hitting .181 in 72 at-bats...Mark Rogers (1st Rnd) 0-3 4.73....Josh Johnson 3rd Rnd. .213....Erik Cordier 2-4 5.19 2nd Rnd....etc...etc....etc....thats just the AZL....Im just wondering how some of these kids make these lists and have garbage seasons....thank goodness for your stat service so we can read between the lines....
A: Allan Simpson: We're not judging players on the basis of their current seasons, but rather their long-range worth. That's why players are in the minor leagues--to get better. Some players are as good now as they're going to get, others have barely scratched the surface of their ability. We're trying to establish which players will not only reach the big leagues, but even excel at that level. The Arizona and Gulf Coast leagues represent the lowest levels of professional baseball and it's the trickiest in terms of projecting a player's worth when players like Bush and Rogers struggle as they did. But both are legitimate prospects--and the operative word here is prospect. It will be a more worthwhile exercise to check back in a couple of years and see the progress some of these players have made.
Next relevant league ranking will come on Friday, when BA takes a look at the Northwest League.
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Baseball America has begun their league by league breakdown, starting with the top 20 for the
Arizona Rookie League and the
Gulf Coast Rookie League.
These being subscriber-only content, I can't fully detail what is in there, but
SS Matt Tuiasosopo was number one and
C Daniel Santin came in as number eight.
The comments on Tui are some of the same I've mentioned before, tends to throw like a quarterback, five-tool, overmatched the league and was rewarded for it. One of the notes on Santin mentions that he doesn't have a very strong arm and throws out about the league average percent of runners.
Allan Simpson will begin answering questions at 2 pm ET tomorrow, 11 am PT in a
live chat, so if you have any pressing questions, you might want to get them in now. I asked something about Jeff Flaig's shoulder issues that I hope gets in there, but someone else might want to try just in case. Oh, and if you're curious about Mariners 1B Luis Soto, be sure to distinguish between him and Red Sox SS Luis Soto.
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