News Around the Minors (1/7/04)
Originally, I was planning on posting another ranking from Diamond Futures, but Mike's site crashed and the top 100 right now is really more like the top 40, then it jumps to 940 and goes from there (Ramon Santiago happens to be in that section).
We'll start with MLB.com, where the Mariners have yet another article up on the
winter leagues. This one concerns Jose Lopez being blocked by the Reese signing and makes reference to the possibility that Jose's defense was a big factor in this signing. His 30 errors in 131 games this year weren't horrible, but the 15 errors in 46 games in the VWL seemed to turn the tide against him. Those errors, apparently, were a combination of fielding and throwing. I'd like to chalk it up to excitement for the coming season, but his defense has been degrading a bit over the past few years, and Bavasi doesn't seem to think another half a year of experience in triple-A could hurt.
There are also a few little blurbs on Julio Mateo and Rick Guttormson in the article.
Ask BA is runnning a piece on an interesting question: 2002 Mark Prior or 2004 Felix Hernandez?
I have waited long enough to ask you this question. Since I have been a BA subscriber/reader, no pitcher has received more accolades than Mark Prior. How does 18-year-old Felix Hernandez stack up against a 21-year-old Prior as the best pitching prospect I have read about since Dwight "could have been the greatest" Gooden?
Mike Marinaro
Tampa
Hernandez at 18 (2004) and Prior at 21 (2002) were in their first full seasons of pro ball. Hernandez dominated a high Class A hitters' league and pitched well in Double-A, while Prior had no problems adapting to the majors after just nine minor league starts. Given that he was three years younger and just two levels behind Prior, you could argue that Hernandez was more advanced for his age.
There's not much to separate the two. Both had mid-90s fastballs, and if I had to pick one I'd take Prior's because his command is a little better. Both had above-average curveballs, with Hernandez' a little more devastating. Both showed signs of having plus changeups, though not yet on a consistent basis. For extra credit, Hernandez also had a slider that's reputed to be his best pitch—but the Mariners wouldn't let him throw it because he didn't really need it and they didn't want to reduce his risk of injury.
Both had exceptional command for young pitchers with electric stuff, with Prior rating a slight edge. Prior also had a slightly taller and stronger frame, as well as nearly picture-perfect mechanics. Because he was younger and less physically developed, Hernandez had more projection remaining. Both had strong makeups and work ethics.
Add it all up, and I'd take Prior over Hernandez because he had proven himself at a higher level (in part because he was three years older) and he's a slightly better bet to stay healthy. There's not much difference between them, however, and I'll set the over/under on their career Cy Young Awards at 3½.
Still, some high praise for Felix... Also, I might as well note as a local thing that BA has released their
top 50 college baseball teams in the preseason. The Huskies come in as number 8.
Mike Thompson at the PI Blog adds his take on "The the angels Angels of Anaheim" by directing us to an
LA Times article, where they make reference to The Inland Empire 66ers of San Bernadino. The front office for the Sixers claims that the Angels are just copying them, which strikes me as amusing. (BTW, if you're worried about the "soul-sucking registration", as Steve refers to it, use
Bug Me Not)
Mike also notes that the Mariners have
hired Wayne Morgan as a scout. Morgan has a background in int'l scouting and spent the past 27 years with the Blue Jays and was given his release just prior to the 2004 season. I tried to do some digging on who he's signed and what his style is, but all I've been able to come up with is
Greg Myers. He seems to be one of Gillick's guys, and he fits with the M's recent tradition of going to far-off places to sign baseball talent, though I can't say his track record in that regard screams "success!"
The Calhoun Times in Georgia has a story on hometown M's prospect
Gary Harris. Harris had some trouble with his knee during the end of the season, which I was not aware of. Seems like the injury may have instilled a newfound sense of determination in him.
Finally, a brief redirect to the
Winter League Rosters, because I've finally found a roster for the Claxton Shield tournament in Australia. The only Mariners prospect represented this time is 19-year-old OF Tim Auty, who didn't even play stateside this season, presumably due to visa issues or just wrapping up his studies in school. He's playing for New South Wales, as are former Mariners prospects Craig Anderson (who was recently released) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (rule 5 to the Twins), though they're almost always involved. Travis Blackley is not on the roster for Victoria, but neither is his little brother Adam. I figure he's just resting until spring training, so I wouldn't expect any new info until that time.
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Baseball Notebook's Top 100 Prospects
While the last prospect update primarily mentioned those players closest to the majors, Baseball Notebook has decided to grade their prospects more statistically, giving the edge to a few guys who have less experience and might otherwise be graded lower. In that, it's a bit like the
Diamond Futures rankings I posted before. Without further ado,
Baseball Notebooks Top 100 AL Hitters. Note that they discuss which criteria they grade on prior to the list.
9. JOSE LOPEZ, SS, SEATTLE: He's got the job heading into this season and I believe one day, several years from now, he's going to be a consistent 25 home run hitter per season, in his best years.
16. WLADIMIR BALENTIEN, OF, SEATTLE
29. SHIN-SOO CHOO, OF, SEATTLE
33. JESUS GUZMAN, 3B, SEATTLE
43. CARLOS ARROYO, OF, SEATTLE
57. JEREMY REED, OF, SEATTLE
60. ADAM JONES, SS, SEATTLE
This will probably be one of the few sources where you'll see Reed ranked so low, but the presence of Arroyo ahead of him on the list is more surprising. Arroyo has displayed a great ability to hit for average, posting a .322 average over about 1500 minor league at-bats (.304 in about 1050 in the US). The bad news is that, aside from that, there aren't many other things he does well, though he only strikes out once every nine at-bats. A bit of a curiousity, but he doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.
Next up, we have the
top 100 AL pitchers. Take a deep breath, find your center, then look on, because I expect some fervent disagreement on this...
15. CESAR JIMENEZ, SEATTLE
17. FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEATTLE
41. DARWIN SOTO, SEATTLE
82. BOBBY LIVINGSTON, SEATTLE
98. TRAVIS BLACKLEY, SEATTLE
100. TANNER WATSON, SEATTLE
It is in the interest of providing equal time for all perspectives that I post a list where
Travis Blackley is only two slots ahead of
Tanner Watson. Actually, that's a little harsh, I'm sure there are reasons behind it. I will note Darwin Soto's ranking in the same way I did with Arroyo. Soto's stuff isn't overwhelming, but he manages to keep the ball down and is still fairly young. Like other minor league rule 5 draftees, he may be a bit of a project, but I think he can do it if he responds to instruction about his mechanics and control.
As for Jimenez being ranked ahead of Felix, I just don't see it, particularly with Jimenez being primarily a reliever. But given that Rowland-Smith was lost to the Twins and the San Antonio rotation may be a man short, I think that Jimenez could be starting in the 2005 season. His breaking pitches are getting a little more polished and he certainly held his own against the hitters in the LVBP this winter, which I rank as being around double-A in level of competition.
I may be one of the few people who is not quite sold on Blanton or Ismael Ramirez.
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The Minors First's Top 100 Prospects
Mike decided to ring in the new years by publishing his
top 100 prospects over at The Minors First.
2. Felix Hernandez- RHP Sea (4/8/86) Looks like the best Mariners' prospect since A-Rod. He's flown up the ladder and had success everywhere he's pitched. I left him off this list last year, saying I wondered if he was for real, or just the another Sid Finch. Now there's no question he's the top pitcher in the Minors. He hits 96-97 mph so smoothly and when he drops that curve on you, lookout! I gave him a lot of consideration for the top spot on this list, but the fact that he's a pitcher (and a very young one at that) dropped him down a spot.
19. Jeremy Reed- OF Sea (6/15/81) It's hard to call Reed's 2004 season a great success when you compare it to the level of expectation his prior season brought on. Also, as a top prospect, he was traded during the season. Even with all that, he still looks like a Major League regular and he's ready to step into the Seattle outfield right now. No, he doesn't have a high ceiling, yet I see a lot of good years ahead of him and he's as likely to reach his peak as any player on this list.
52. Shin-Soo Choo- OF Sea (7/13/82) Back on track after a bit of a let down in 2003, Choo has added power to his very well rounded offensive package. He hangs in there very well against lefties and has the kind of approach at the plate where he probably hits them well, though I haven't seen any numbers to back this up.
89. Clint Nageotte- RHP Sea (10/25/80) So far he's lived off his 2 plus pitches, a good fastball and one of the best sliders in the minors. Seattle says development of his changeup will be the deciding factor as to whether he remains a starter. In his brief trial with the M's, it was obvious that Nageotte could use a lesson or two in learning how to pitch from some of the seasoned veterans, rather than trying to just get by with his stuff.
Travis Blackley, of course, is not on this list because a number of people
have been spooked by his recent troubles.
Otherwise, expect this list to be fairly similar to what BA puts on their top prospect list, in that it seems likely that Joe Mauer will retain his title.
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