Roster Breakdown 2006:
Tacoma Rainiers RosterThe Rainiers are set up much like they have been in past years: a pitching staff that isn't new to triple-A, a couple of studs in the OF, and one hotshot SS prospect that everyone will have their eyes on. The only thing it seems to be missing is the journeyman, former indie league pitcher (preferably a lefty).
The pitching staff does have experience, true, but there are a lot of questions about it as a whole. Do Nageotte and Green continue inducing groundballs like it's going out of style? Does Foppert ever get his velocity and control back (and stop missing up)? Can Livingston's bag of tricks carry him through the highest level of the minors? Are Baek and Atchison coming in with something to prove? Do Dorman and Cruceta ever put it together? Do Cortez and Fruto
keep it together? How does Oldham adjust to the 'pen? Not all of these questions need to be answered affirmatively for the team to contend, but it makes the pitching depth interesting in the coming years depending on how they're answered. I'm rather fond of the idea of Nags as the 5th starter.
The offense will be a little different. With both Johnson and Rivera in Tacoma, it'll be a battle between top defensive catchers to see who comes out on top offensively. In the outfield, you'll have Bohn who has been able to get on at a steady pace, but not hit a lot of home runs, Choo, who is hoping that the late season surge carries him through the new season, and Jones adjusting to a new position while everyone worries that the defensive adjustments will temporarily take away from his offensive game. If nothing else, those three guys could seriously limit the chances of the pitchers giving up extra-base hits, because all of them can fly and throw hard. The infield is what probably interests me the least, but it does have Drubie on the fast track, and Morse and Dobbs trying to prove they deserve spots on the big club. Brown might finally break out as a utility infielder candidate, but his case is still hurting there unless he suddenly becomes a capable shortstop. Sears plays the role of minor league first base fodder, Youngbauer plays second, and Morban is in the Rainiers' Bloomquist role, I'd expect.
Prediction: Title Contention
San Antonio RosterSome familiar faces here, with the roster still shaking out (as Carvajal has recently been traded to the D-Rays for de la Rosa). Jimenez is in the rotation again, which takes the edge off Oldham in the 'pen in Tacoma, and Blackley is back in action as well. Also returning are Mateo, Flannery, and Huber as hard throwers out of the 'pen, and I assume the Bazardo rotation experiment continues. Newcomers include Feirabend, Mackintosh, and Moorhead (who may or may not be healthy at the moment), all of whom need to limit their hits more than they have been, and of whom Feir might be the only real prospect. Fillinger and James look to continue their newfound dominance at the upper levels, and Pettyjohn... well, he's a real wildcard, trying to pitch again after losing most of an intestine. Not an exciting staff, but some things to watch.
The offense is a little better. If you could combine the better talents of Clement and Ruchti, you'd have the best catching prospect in the minors and one of the top prospects in all of minor league baseball, but as it stands, Clement's still unpolished defensively and Ruchti would be lucky to hit his weight. The outfield features two guys seeking to establish, with Boucher trying to prove he can do the same things he did last year at double-A and Big Bad Wlad trying to figure out a way to draw a walk and minimize those darned strikeouts. The other two have more question marks, as older college guys. Harris is a speed guy who lost a couple steps last year, and Nelson, after "breaking out" in 04, finally saw the strikeouts catch up with him and beat him down. Also, the whole drinking fountain thing, which I won't soon forget. Your big infield prospect is Navarro, who is arguably the best defensive infielder still in our minors, but his offense has been off and on. Lahair is trying to establish himself as the first valuable 1B prospect we've developed in who knows how long, but needs to hit lefties better. Guzman just needs hit, period, and get back to drawing walks. Some defensive versatility couldn't hurt either. Otherwise, you have Garciaparra coming out of advanced-A after being trapped in Inland for what seemed like forever, though the same could be said for Rogelstad. Bourgeois is the former top prospect trying to re-establish himself with a new org, and the only minor league rule five we picked up (speaking of which, the Rangers released Estelin Soto, who they snagged from us). More questions here, but Clement can't hurt and it should be safer than the pitching.
Prediction: Second or third
Inland Empire RosterYour '06 Inland rotation right now is Rohrbaugh, Santiago, Bello, Nottingham, and Jensen. Rohr is getting challenged, and he didn't pitch quite as well as some of the past lefties to come through Everett, but I'd still keep an eye on him. Santiago is the continuing question, with regard to both velocity and health. I guess my opinion on Bello is evident, but to summarize, between the walks and flyballs, he's probably the weakest link there and the most easily replaced, if he pitches much like last season. Nottingham should survive, if he's over his flexor bundle thing, and I'd expect him to be one of the brighter spots. Jensen, I can only hope carries over his dominance from the T-Rats playoffs. The bullpen iis curiously filled with swingmen types who have started in the past and could move to the rotation in the future, with such names as Lowe, O'Flaherty, Blanco, Mumba Rivera, KAAAAAAHN!, and Trolia. The only pure bullpenner is Lockwood, who is again, trying to follow up on his good season last year. In terms of stuff and overall velocity, this might be the best minor league roster the M's are fielding, but it still has some injury and stability concerns last year's T-Rats had.
The Sixers were left with the short end of the stick as far as catchers go. Falcon can hit, and did better than it appeared last year in Wisconsin, but he's been hanging around for what feels like forever, as has Oliveros, though both guys are fairly young. Both have been all over the place in terms of their placement the past few years, and could provide some decent skills, but it's hard to know what you'll ultimately have with both. It's a similar story in the outfield, where you have Colton technically returning after an impressive Wisconsin stint and a terrible run in Inland. Mike Wilson might be the guy to watch here, as he's regarded as the most improved player from this spring training and stood out quite a bit last year as well. His power stroke could make an impact in the Cal League. Womack's the prototypical five-tool left-handed outfielder, who hasn't stood out in any one place just yet, and Heid is making his first jump to full season after breifly putting the hurt on the NWL last year. The largest group here is the infielders, but don't bet on all of them playing solely there. Hubbard, Jack Arroyo, and Brent Johnson have experience in both places and have done all right there, though Hubbard is a stronger bet for first and should turn some heads at least with his offense. Prettyman and Eastley make the leap from Everett, and should join Chen and Monzon (returning for yet another run) as utility infield types who could play in a number of positions. The guy everyone will be watching is Tui, who will at least start out at short. How long that lasts is anyone's guess, but he's the top offensive prospect on the team. It's going to be Tui and Hubbard and maybe Monzon as the big offensive producers on the infield, with the rest as slightly questionable, or needing to recover from the whole Midwest League thing.
Prediction: Title contention, if things break right (second or third, more realistic)
Wisconsin RosterOh man. This one's going to be either fun or nerve-wracking. You have Escalona and Vega getting pushed hard, but both are extremely talented. Escalona may soon establish himself as the system's best LHSP, and Vega combines a low90s FB with a mid60s change, which is just crazy (AND, he was named the most improved minor league pitcher in camp). Should either falter, the staff is stablized by the presence of Snyder, Thomas, Williams, Gilmore, Woerman, Gibson, and Allen, all of whom have college level experience. The top three are the clear favorites from that group, and if Snyder proves himself healthy, he could move out quickly. Thomas and Williams are lefties with good stuff, as is Gibson, if he can reign it in and stop walking guys. Fagan and Guaramato are both serious breakout candidates, with good stuff that's just a few tweaks away from making a considerable impact. Limiting walks should help both.
The offense has some of the same craziness. Catcher features an indy leaguer signed last year (Prosise), a college veteran who brought havoc to the NWL last year (Tucker), and an oft-injured Taiwanese backstop who may ultimately shift to first (Wu). The outfield has one of the AZL's better hitters in Hernandez, though he didn't see much time, and Craig who needed to move up desperately. What he does with it, is still a question, but he has plate discipline and some usable speed working in his favor. Saunders can hit 'em as hard as anyone, but he's still kind of a raw athletic type. Gary is an unknown to me, and that he was called up in a spring training game surprised me more than anything. The outfield could probably carry it, particularly when you add in such hard hitting IF/OF guys as Sabatella and Flaig, assuming they get in a groove. They don't have to, however, as there are strong hitting infielders in Valbuena and Garth, who hit quite well in the NWL and AZL respectively. Dominguez and Hudson are probably the weakest links here. Both are pluses defensively, and could see time because there's really no other strong defensive shortstops on the roster. They're really the only holes in an otherwise strong lineup. Let's see if they can overcome the MWL...
Prediction: Title contention, if things break right (second or third, more realistic)
Play Ball!
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Computer Issues / Delayed Posting
Over the past few weeks my computer has developed an odd problem that I've yet to find any sort of clear solution to. It seems to be constantly consuming disk space, and to what ends, I've yet to find out. In this time period, I've probably deleted anywhere from 700mb-1gig of files or programs I figured I could do without, and each time, that space has been used up in absurdly short amount of time. I'm not downloading anything, I haven't visited any unusual sites in recent memory, it's not something Ad-Aware could pick up, and when I run Disk Cleanup, it seems convinced the there's only a few megs of Temprorary Internet Files and negligible space that could be saved through other means. Still, every few hours, my computer seems convinced that I only have 8k left when it was 250mb only a short time ago. I can't do any new tasks or download the neglected update or to because as soon as I try, it runs out of space again.
I know the basics of computer management, how to to put things together and what to avoid, but I've never ran into something of this nature. It seems to defy explanation. I'm going to run an error check today to see if it finds anything at all, but I doubt it even gets through it without believing it has run out of the memory necessary.
Should that fail (and I fully expect it to at this point), I'm going to run it down to my usual computer shop tomorrow and have them try to fix it, shifting everything over from my current 30gig to a new 300gig and installing a newer DVD drive I have lying around here while they're at it.
I have no idea when they'll have my computer fixed, but I'll be without it for the minor league home opener (also tomorrow), and will be left to find other cputers to post from in the meantime. This cancels the roster commentary I anticipated doing (they're up at Prospect Insider, if you follow the sidebar link), but I should figure out something for the game recaps.
Thanks for your patience in the meantime.
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