Mariner Minors
What ever happened to the Little Unit?
It being the news-deficient time of the year,
Jim Street tries to get the scoop.
First paragraph...
Time is running out on Ryan Anderson.
Ah, how many times I've heard that. In more seriousness, it appears that RA has finally developed a work ethic and is looking to make a comeback. I've heard that he was throwing in the mid 90s towards the end of the year and could've gotten into a game in Arizona, but they didn't want to push him too much.
The newfound desire to train may help him in the long-term in getting to the major leagues, but whether he will be a starter or a reliever isn't clear just yet. On one hand, there are those who have said that, due to the health of his arm and previous problems with endurance, he may be little more than a high-powered reliever. On the other hand, I would like to think that his training regiment may give him a better chance in the long run than he might have had previously. Regardless, he has always been one of the more interesting stories in the system and even now, four years after he threw his last pitch in a game, I still see questions about him every few months. I'm pulling for him, but I don't know if I buy into the reports just yet.
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Transaction Update (11/5/04):
Courtesy of
Baseball America, which has become basically the only reliable source of transaction news in recent months, we now have a new list of changes...
Signed RHPs Ira Brown, Ricky Guttormson and Gregorio Rosario, C Brian Moon, LHP Melvin Pizarro. Released LHP Craig Anderson, RHPs Kenly Chang and Chao Wang, SS Francisco Gerez and IF Pedro Ozoria. Reinstated OFs Sebastien Boucher and Gregory Halman and RHP Chia An Huang from inactive list.
Guttormson, 28, is presently tearing the Venezuelan Winter League apart. In seven appearances, he has two wins, two saves, a K/9 of 13.00, and an opposing batting average of .100. There isn't a great deal of precedent for this outburst, considering his San Antonio numbers were very good, but not necessarily characteristic of sheer dominance. If he has mysteriously turned a corner, then he may get a ST invite as a non-roster and might not be a bad addition if they're still looking for a groundball-styled righty reliever.
Rosario, I have no data on. I'm assuming that this isn't the second incarnation of
Melvin Gregorio Rosario, who used to be a catcher in the San Diego, Chi Sox, and Baltimore systems. More likely than not, he is one of the more noted talents in the scouting for Dominican Summer League or Venezuelan Summer League players. I'm leaning towards Dominican on that one.
Moon, 27, was nothing impressive in 2004. In fact, he was the worst batter on the Missions team (most offensive, ha ha, I'm punny...). With Horner retired and the status of Pat Borders yet unknown, it helps to have a veteran catch-and-throw guy in the high minors.
Pizarro, 27, was the streakiest reliever I have seen in recent memory in the minors, alternating between periods of mind-numbing dominance (entire months without an earned run) and being completely incapable of getting a runner out the rest of the time. Roster filler in Double-A.
Anderson, 24, is on his first step towards the Jamie Moyer career path, minus the big league debut. He is one of many southpaws that gets caught in the jump from high-A to Double-A and just cannot seem to transition. The increased hit rates and home run rates in recent years have been a surefire indicator of that. He's still young, and still has a great deal to learn, so I wouldn't say that he's done unless he believes he is. He might find his way back onto a club as a Triple-A filler, maybe in a west coast team that has a good Australian connection, in which case San Diego might seem like a decent bet.
Chang, 22, is one of what seems like only a handful of Nicaraguan players in the minor leagues. He was given a coupleo f opportunities as a spot starter this year, but seems to be primarily a reliever. No great loss, and his release doesn't surprise me. He stays in the strike zone a bit too much and there are enough college-level pitchers drafted in 2004 to make him relatively expendable. Should sign on with another club, but is likely to repeat at mid-A until he can get more bite to his pitches.
Wang, 18?, didn't throw a pitch this season and only threw an inning and two-thirds last season. I'm assuming he had arm troubles of some sort, but it's a moot point now; the first Chinese prospect in major league baseball goes out with little fanfare. Perhaps he'll return to his native country and pick up from there; they could certainly use him.
Gerez, 24?, pulled a homer earlier in the season when, upon promotion from Peoria to Tacoma, he announced that he was 24 or 25 and not 19 as originally thought. Anyone who
actually looked at the guy could've told you that. Regardless, the M's have not taken kindly to being lied to in recent years, be it age or injury. No brainer, no loss.
Ozoria, 21, has fallen considerably since being named the Dominican Summer League's Mariners Team MVP a few years back, but when he's putting up a .713 OPS in Arizona as a third baseman, he doesn't have a lot going for him. More of a testament to how weak the Dominican scouting was until this year than anything else.
Boucher (23), Halman (17), and Huang (17) were all collectively caught in the work visa debacle coming into the season, along with a number of other prospects that just stayed in their respective summer leagues. Boucher is a Canadian outfielder with 70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, Halman is a lefty-batting first baseman from the Netherlands who was leading or near the lead of their league in most offensive categories, and Huang is a hard-throwing Taiwanese groundball pitcher. Now you know, and knowing is half the battle.
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BA's Review on the overall 2004 draft
In their free stuff, BA has ranked all the talent overall in the 2004 draft and the M's come up in a few places... Any guesses?
Best Pro Debut (HS):
3. Matt Tuiasosopo
Best Athlete:
4. Matt Tuiasosopo
Most Intriguing Background (Non-baseball):
2. Matt Tuiasosopo
Best Draft-and-Follows from 2004:
4. Michael Saunders, rhp/of
I've seen Saunders across the board as a RHP, OF, 3B, 1B... but unfortunately I just don't have time to comment on him at the moment, other than I've gotten a few questions on him and many are intrigued by him.
Jim Callis of Baseball America is stuck in traffic, but he will be holding
another chat on these rankings and the 2004 draft at approximately 3:15 pm ET, 12:15 pm PT, which is quite soon now. If you have a few pressing questions, now might be the time, but it wasn't as if the M's had a stellar draft beyond Tui.
I'll be adding a pretty big transaction update later in the day, since that list has also recently been updated.
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BA's 2004 Draft Report Card
As I've mentioned earlier, Baseball America is releasing a draft report card for each time right now. They touched on the AL West yesterday, and here's how the rankings ended up...
Best Pro Debut, Athlete, Pure Hitter: Tui
Best Raw Power: Tui, Marshall Hubbard
Fastest Runner: Jermaine Brock, Sebastian Boucher
Best Defensive Player: Rob Johnson, Jeff Dominguez
Best Fastball: Mark Lowe (Mumba Rivera comes in second)
Best Breaking Ball: Mumba Rivera (curve), Aaron Trolia (slider)
Closest to Majors: Mark Lowe or Rob Johnson
Best Late-Round Pick: Steve Uhlmansiek, a lefty who recently had arm surgery
The One Who Got Away: J.P. Arencibia, a prep catcher who is going to Tennessee.
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Minor League MVPs
Just when I thought my work was done... The Seattle Mariners have name their
minor league MVPs for the year. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo was named Player of the Year and right-hander Felix Hernandez was Pitcher of the Year. No surprises there. As for the individual levels, they went like...
AAA Tacoma: 1B A.J. Zapp LH Randy Williams
AA San Antonio: OF Shin-soo Choo RH Rich Dorman
A Inland Empire: OF Jon Nelson LH Bobby Livingston
A Wisconsin: OF Wladimir Balentien LH Ryan Feierabend
LH Thomas Oldham
Short-A Everett: SS Oswaldo Navarro LH Shawn Nottingham
Rookie Peoria: C Daniel Santin RH Roman Martinez
Venezuelan: INF Luis Valbuena LH Jose Escalona
Dominican: OF Jairo Hernandez RH Sterling Soto
Some surprises here, for one, the organization seems higher on Dorman than I originally thought.
Second, Navarro? Interesting distinction for a guy who was demoted mid-season. I would have given the award to Casey Craig, Yung-Chi Chen, or Brent Johnson before Navarro, but these things have been known to happen with the awards.
The Roman Martinez thing is even more screwed up, as nearly every pitcher put up better numbers than him. I would've gone with Jason Snyder, or Lamont, or even Brandt and Grasley.
No real surprises in the summer leagues though, Valbuena's a no-brainer and Escalona was their best starter so far as consistency. As for Jairo Hernandez, he's an OF who put up a .332/.401/.500 line in his first year in the Dominican Summer League. He has power and speed to burn, and might become something interesting in the future. Soto's performance was as his first name advertises (sports writer's dream), but a lot of pitchers there were unusually good this year. I would have given the nod to Eddy Fernandez, personally.
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M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 4
Well, we've hit the final part of the series, which means I should be wrapping up right now. For easy navigation, here are the previous parts in the series...
M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 1 (introduction and WHIP charts)
M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 2 (K/BB charts and sifting through numbers)
M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 3 (analysis of the numbers)
The Rest of the System
Naturally, when you’re going by the numbers like that, you skip over a lot of guys who are good, but just don’t meet the rest of the requirements. After wading my way through the rest of this, I would be demanding to know about more publicized names and other guys who run along the “high-risk, high-reward” lines. Congratulations, that’s what this is for.
Nageotte and Blackley were the two biggest non-Felix names coming into the season and, despite their struggles, both were actually
thisclose to making the hard list. Despite that, every sportswriter in the region was screaming “ABANDON SHIP!” a while ago and claiming that the supposed strength of the system was nothing more than an illusion. To them I would say, you have to take each situation in context. Nageotte’s typical fastball coming into the season was in the 91-94 range, and due to some back problems, it was a few MPH less. This forced him to pick at the corners a bit more than he usually would. Also consider that a certain manager was calling him up and calling him a bullpen guy to anyone who would listen. Clint should have been in Tacoma working on his change-up just like he worked on his fastball in the previous season, and the poor results we saw with him are more indicative of his sudden loss in velocity than him not being as good as advertised.
Jim Callis gave me the same story with Blackley: he lost some velocity on his fastball and just couldn’t provided enough distinction between his pitches. Couple that with his change-up, which was mostly gone for the entire season, and his struggles are not in the least bit surprising, particularly when he was trying too hard back in Tacoma. We now have
some concerns about Nags’ back and Travis’ arm, but I’m not inclined to think that these are serious issues, or that they won’t be able to bounce back.
On another local paper note: George Sherrill was the best reliever in Tacoma and the entire system this season. This is not a topic of debate. I know, that we have heard people sing the praises of Atchison and how he closed, but the facts are: 1) Sherrill had nearly twice as many saves 2) Sherrill is a lefty 3) Sherrill didn’t have his best stuff when we saw him 4) Every one of Sherrill’s numbers were better than Atch’s. Though Putz only saw 8.1 innings in Tacoma, his numbers were also worse than Sherrill’s. Any number of people would like to say there is value in having a lefty setup man, but if Eddie is gone, then I say that we MUST look at George before we assume that J.J. or Scott is going to get it by default.
Beyond that, I’m having trouble speaking to all the things I want to. I could probably say something on each pitcher in the system and stretch this piece out forever, but instead I’ll aim to be brief and cut it down to some bullet points…
* It probably doesn’t serve much point repeating what we already know, but Madritsch seemed to dial it up a notch in the big leagues as some guys are prone to doing. I support the idea of him being in the rotation, particularly now that it’s in question whether or not Daisuke Matsuzaka will be posted.
* I’m watching Rich Dorman and Rick Guttormson for next year. Both are older that you want in prospects, but both have had their share of problems (Dorman used to be a catcher, Guttormson was in the indie leagues) and both sport some nasty breaking pitches (curve for Dorman, slider for Guttormson).
* Taylor has been pitching without his typical velocity, and it seems that he’s learning how to pitch successfully rather than just throwing.
* Fruto doesn’t have incredible stuff, but his age compared to the league he’s in leaves me intrigued. I’ve suggested before that they leave him at one level two years in a row and I’m standing by that this year too.
* Miguel Martinez was looking like one of the premier left-handed relievers in the system coming into the year, but inexplicably fell off a cliff (as did his lower level counterpart, Brandon Perry). Don’t know why exactly. On the other hand, Darwin Soto seemed to step it up a little late in the season and may be useful in the future.
* Huber may end up a reliever soon, depending on how he does in the AFL and if the club buys into it. They like his stuff, but he does get hit a lot…
* Wisconsin’s pitching staff was anchored by two guys who were a lot older than the level in Mackintosh and Moorhead. I don’t know how this bodes for them coming up, but I won’t be terribly interested in either of them until they do it at the higher levels, Double-A at least. Out of the rest of the crowd there, I would say I’m most intrigued by Hrynio and his sick K rates. Regardless, the 2005 Inland Empire pitching staff is set to look very different from what the 2004 T-Rats started with.
* As frequent readers would well know, I was pretty high on Mumba Rivera. BA is now grading him as having the second-best fastball in the M’s 2004 draft as well as the best curveball. Of course, his age compared to the level he was at was none too impressive, but he hasn’t been pitching that long either. He shouldn’t be lower than IE next year.
* Snyder also stands out, not because his stuff was excellent but because he knows how to attack the strike zone, and not many pitchers do. Speaking of which, memo to Aaron Jensen: trust your stuff and use it.
* Guys like Brandt and Grasley seem like candidates to skip up to Wisconsin next year from Peoria, and Lamont should also get consideration there as well. Fagan was also on track for that and dominated the league until he got hit by a stretch of three or four starts that were absolutely horrible and made his overall line look a lot worse. They might look over that, but the safest bet would be a starting rotation spot in 2005 Everett.
* In the Summer Leagues, there are a number of candidates that could be considered to make the jump, an unusually high number, in fact. Usually, the club has been rather picky about who they’ve gone with and have generally brought over two pitcher and one or two position players max from each league, but they may not have the option this time. It’s also entirely possible that some of them were intended for US shores and couldn’t get work visas this year.
*This wasn’t a good year for predicting pitching, due to injuries to a handful of guys I was looking at in-depth. In addition to Blackley and Nageotte, I’m also looking for a rebound for Eric O’Flaherty and Ivan Blanco next year, probably at the same levels they began at this year. O’Flaherty is still one of my favorite guys because he distinctly breaks the soft-tossing lefty mold, or at least he did before going down. Blanco is a bit of a RH power pitcher, nasty curve, totally destroyed the VSL in 2003. Both are high-potential, but they now seem to have injury risks attached.
Looking forward to 2005, there are a few debuts I’m looking forward to. Aussie right-hander Aaron Thorne is set to debut next year with the rest of his mates who signed earlier in the year, and Thorne’s FB hit 90 a few times when they signed him as a 17-year-old, and has probably added a bit of velocity since. He’s also reputed to have a good slider, but I don’t know how good. Edgar Guaramato is one of the many guys who could make the jump, but based on his VWL performance and his age, I’ll say he will. His story is similar to that of Rafael Soriano, except he was an infielder, has a MPH or two less velocity as of now, less control, and more polish on his slider. I’m waiting for him to do something special in the winter leagues so I can write a piece on him for ITP… Taiwanese right-hander Chia-An Huang also intrigues me greatly, and draws comparisons to Rockies prospect Chin-Hui Tsao with perhaps a bit more velocity. It was an excellent year overall for int’l signings, which pleases me.
There you have it, more information than you probably cared to have. I’d say that this was definitely a down year for pitching, but there’s always next year (which is certain to have surprises in store as well). Pitching still looks like it will be the strength of the club for at least few years to come. But if you still have questions and things you want to come back to, I'll be happy to come back and update this particular post later.
As for me, I've had enough math for one day (most insane thing I've done in recent memory, underscored by the fact that I'll do it again soon), so I'm going to go tune out to political spin machines and... more numbers on election returns. (cussing)
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M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 3
This is the third part of the four part series. Part one, concerning WHIP, can be found
here, and the second part on K/BB rates can be found
here.
By The Gut
Less numbers, more talk, as I'm sure
Tyler's eyes have glazed over by this point (fret not, fellow English major). We’ve gotten the list down to seven prospects that project well into the majors right now, what will they be doing next year and what does their future look like?
Felix is number one, no question, and if he ever does get a chance to break out his slider (91 mph, rumored to be better than all his other pitches) and doesn’t have his arm fall off (his mechanics are good enough not to worry too much about it), he’ll be one of the top pitchers in the league, if not the top. Felix will probably start out in San Antonio, then move up to Tacoma midseason.
Feierabend and Oldham are cut from the same “change-up is best pitch” cloth that the M’s seem to buy stock in. They pitched about the same as well, with Oldham getting the edge in every category and striking out guys about twice as often as Feierabend, who wasn’t so bad, mind you. The difference is that Oldham is three years older and has a more polished third pitch in his slider, while Feierabend is more likely to improve with age and his curve isn't quite as good yet. Oldham was on pace if not a little behind from where he should be to start out the year, while Feierabend took a challenge and ran with it. Both guys have a good knowledge of how to pitch to hitters, so it’s easy to predict success for both of them, but dominance is another question. Feierabend will be starting 2005 in the Cal League, while Oldham will either stay there, or move up to the Texas League. Either way, he should see time there next year.
Jimenez is an oddity as a sort of “tweener” pitcher. He has a career ERA of 2.70 in the US, and no one in the VSL stood any chance against him, but up until this year he had been doing it primarily with his fastball and his change-up. It’s believed that one of the main reasons he didn’t have success in starting during his tenure in Wisconsin was because he didn’t have a breaking pitch. This year, he’s added a breaking pitch which isn’t reported to be anything special, just an average slurve type thing, but he put up his best career numbers using it in a league that’s generally hitter friendly. Why is that? Well, he was dominating hitters before with a mid to high 80s fastball and an above-average change-up, and he’s thought to be one of the more intelligent pitchers in the organization. He’ll have to polish up his command on the slurve and his fastball if he’s thinking of getting another starting audition, but I have no doubt he’ll survive the usually tough transition to Double-A for next year.
Livingston is, in some respects, another lefty who has mastered the change-up, but in other respects he sets himself apart from everyone else. First off, he has even less velocity, clocking in at the low to mid 80s most of the time. B-Liv threw in the low 90s in high school, but it seems like he’s sacrificed a large part of his velocity for near impeccable command. In addition, he also has more polished breaking pitches than the others, most notably a curve that clocks in around 70 and can be thrown for a strike whenever. I haven’t run a study on him or Oldham yet for the transition to Double-A, but right now Livingston projects better than any non-prodigy in the system. Definitely one of the more interesting pitchers right now and definitely overlooked.
Nottingham is the guy that I feel a little more liberty in talking about, having seen him a couple of times this season and one of those without his best stuff. BA sells him as being the next in line of change-up pitchers, but I’m not entirely certain myself. I’ve seen his fastball cut in hard to right-handed batters, and I’ve voiced some enthusiasm about the pitch before, and I agree with BA’s assessment on his curve; it’s not nasty, but he can throw it for strikes whenever. While I did see good things from the change-up, I don’t know that I saw it often enough to make a clean assessment, so I’ll take BA’s lead and add that if it is his best pitch, then that speaks well to his abilities as a pitcher. He’s more like Livingston than Oldham and Feierabend, just with more stuff and less command. I’d like to see him take on Advanced-A next year, but I won’t complain too much if he ends up in Wisconsin. He's reported to have an excellent work ethic (showed up to ST very early this year and rented out a house with some fellow players), so it makes sense for him to continue putting up good numbers.
As for Laz Lamont, I can’t speak on him as much as I’d like to be able to. He has the curious distinction of being the only right-hander on the hard list, but he’s right on the edge there and needs to work on polishing his control a bit and maybe pitching in pressure situations. His peripherals were better than the ones both Feierabend and Nottingham put up in Arizona last year, but he seemed to get into a little more trouble (reflected in his higher ERA) and had a few more wild pitches than you’d generally like. I can’t speak to what kind of stuff Tyrone throws, but he seems to be a step above other international signings the M’s have made in Oleg Korneev and Chao Wang (feel free to laugh, Jeff), who have become little more than trivia answers. I’d expect him to get a shot to start in Everett next year, with an outside chance of breaking with Wisconsin, depending on what he does and how the college-drafted pitchers from this year fare.
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M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 2
This is the second in a four part series. The first part, concerning WHIP, can be found
here.
Next up, we have the K/BB charts. K/BB works better at judging a pitcher’s control. Even if a pitcher isn’t particularly strikeout prone, they should be able to maintain a solid ratio of strikeouts to walks. The extreme high-end of the spectrum would be guys like Brad Radke and Stephen Grasley (see below) who seem regard the walk as a sort of mortal enemy. Of course, these pitchers are not necessarily strikeout pitchers, so to compensate for that, I add the K/9, or strikeouts per nine innings pitched next to it. That way, it’s easier to gauge what the pitcher is doing when he throws the ball and, in some cases, how good his stuff is. Pitchers can still be effective in the right situations, in spite of lackluster K/BB. Check out Jeff Nelson.
For lack of resources on minor league pitching as a whole, we’ll consider the average line as a K/BB of 2.00, as the major league average this season was 1.96. Again, as with the WHIP, consider that if a player really is that good, they’d probably be putting up a number better than average.
Tacoma
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
*Sherrill, Geor 27 50.1 6.89 11.09 4
Atchison, Scot 29 69.1 2.92 9.87 8
Baek, Cha Seung 24 72.2 2.33 6.94 7
*Madritsch, Bob 29 62.1 2.04 7.65 3
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Nageotte, Clint 24 80.2 1.80 7.03 9
*Blackley, Trav 22 110.1 1.70 6.53 14
*Anderson, Cra 24 92.1 1.55 6.34 18
*Williams, Rand 29 79.1 1.39 7.26 6
Martinez, Gusta 29 99.1 1.27 6.34 9
*Thornton, Matt 28 83.0 1.17 8.02 4
Hoerman, Jared 26 62.1 0.85 4.91 7
San Antonio
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
*Devey, Phil 27 70.0 2.84 9.13 8
Hernandez, Feli 19 57.1 2.76 9.10 3
Taylor, Aaron 27 37.1 2.64 8.92 2
Guttormson, Ric 28 65.2 2.33 7.67 7
*Key, Chris 27 102.0 2.33 5.50 7
*Rall, Tim 25 65.0 2.23 10.80 12
Dorman, Rich 26 108.2 2.14 11.34 8
--------------------------------------------------------------
Cortez, Renee 22 52.2 1.92 7.86 8
Buglovsky, Chri 25 121.0 1.80 6.02 7
*Cate, Troy 24 56.2 1.75 5.56 7
*Thomas, Jared 24 59.2 1.68 9.65 4
Fruto, Emiliano 20 68.1 1.51 7.38 6
Done, Juan 24 153.1 1.23 5.05 19
Inland Empire
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
*Oldham, Thom 22 42.0 9.33 12.00 5
*Livingston, Bo 22 186.2 4.70 6.80 15
Hernandez, Feli 19 92.0 4.38 11.15 5
*Jimenez, Cesa 20 86.1 4.26 8.44 3
Fulmer, T.A. 25 96.0 4.09 8.06 7
*Rowland-Smith 22 99.2 3.97 10.74 10
*Martinez, Migu 22 41.2 3.18 11.66 5
Sandoval, Juan 24 168.1 2.77 6.36 21
Watson, Tanner 22 69.1 2.59 7.40 3
*Pizarro, Melvi 27 70.0 2.42 7.46 7
Huber, Jon 23 139.1 2.37 8.91 13
Soto, Darwin 23 67.1 2.25 7.22 2
Wisconsin
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
Oldham, Thom 22 116.2 4.40 10.18 15
Moorhead, Bran 25 145.2 3.26 10.07 5
Stitt, Bryan 22 91.1 3.21 8.87 10
Mackintosh, Jas 24 149.1 3.16 8.38 18
Hrynio, Mike 22 62.1 2.48 11.84 4
Feierabend, Ry 19 161.0 2.41 5.92 17
Chang, Kenly 22 63.1 2.40 6.82 6
Acosta, Nibaldo 22 161.2 2.26 5.29 14
--------------------------------------------------------------
O’Flaherty, Er 20 57.1 1.65 5.97 3
Everett
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
*Nottingham, S 20 88.2 3.00 8.83 8
Lowe, Mark 21 38.1 2.71 8.92 4
Snyder, Jason 22 44.1 2.44 7.91 2
Bello, Cibney 22 34.1 2.27 8.91 5
--------------------------------------------------------------
Trolia, Aaron 23 41.0 1.94 7.24 5
Rivera, Mumba 24 59.0 1.92 7.32 4
Flores, Ruben 20 53.2 1.67 6.71 8
Forbes, Terry 20 20.0 1.57 4.95 1
Jensen, Aaron 19 80.0 1.56 6.30 12
*Perry, Brandon 20 28.1 1.52 8.26 3
*Hall, Vance 21 34.2 1.47 6.49 4
Cullen, Phil 25 31.1 1.18 5.74 3
*Bergdall, Kend 22 55.0 1.03 6.71 7
Peoria
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
Grasley, Stephe 23 28.1 37.00 11.75 3
Snyder, Jason 22 25.0 4.14 10.44 0
*Brandt, Adam 22 21.1 3.25 10.97 0
Clement, Donald 23 28.1 2.43 5.40 0
Arias, Oliver 22 56.1 2.31 9.59 6
Martinez, Roman 20 21.2 2.10 8.72 1
Lamont, Tyrone 19 32.2 2.08 7.44 2
--------------------------------------------------------------
*Fagan, Paul 20 60.1 1.97 8.50 3
Woerman, Joe 22 27.0 1.69 9.00 0
Carter, Eric 21 44.1 1.40 7.11 0
Dorn, Tim 22 18.0 1.20 12.00 0
Lockwood, Jon 23 41.1 1.10 7.19 2
Venezuela
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
Gaetano, Diomny 20 47.0 3.25 7.47 2
Yerovi, Carlos 24 21.0 3.17 8.14 2
Venaga, Alfred 18 39.0 2.88 8.00 0
*Castro, Hugo 21 36.2 2.18 9.08 0
Guaramato, Edg 20 51.1 2.14 7.89 1
--------------------------------------------------------------
Correa, Felix 19 40.1 1.89 7.59 0
Vega, Marwin 18 47.2 1.87 8.12 1
*Escalona, Jose 19 43.0 1.83 8.79 1
Uviedo, Ronald 18 33.0 1.69 6.00 2
Rodriguez, Irvi 19 21.2 1.60 6.65 1
Gutierrez, Alej 19 21.2 1.50 6.23 2
Acosta, Jorge 21 32.2 1.31 4.68 0
*Jimenez, Jose 18 27.2 1.10 7.16 0
Alarcon, Kelvin 19 24.0 1.00 5.63 1
Figueroa, Carl 20 23.1 0.31 3.86 0
Dominican Republic
Name Age IP K/BB K/9 HR
Luna, Jael ? 49.0 7.63 11.20 0
Fernandez, Eddy ? 72.1 3.82 8.09 2
Mercedes, Mich ? 62.2 3.58 6.18 1
Soto, Sterling ? 60.2 2.68 7.57 0
Zapata, Juan ? 44.1 2.61 6.90 1
Torres, Leonar ? 28.2 2.36 8.16 1
Colon, Carlos ? 62.0 2.25 10.45 1
Perez, Victor ? 48.0 2.05 7.69 0
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bonilla, Toma ? 48.1 1.94 6.52 1
Suriel, Jose ? 36.1 1.82 4.95 0
Dilone, Nativid ? 29.1 1.19 7.67 0
Torres, Victor ? 21.1 0.76 5.48 1
So, I’m sure by now you’re thinking, “well, that was a fine bit of grunt work, but what does it mean?” Glad you asked. Figuring in the expected age for each level, starting with 18-19 at the Peoria level and working your way up to 23-24 at the Triple-A level, you can combine the other two charts to find out which pitchers in the M’s system project out as being major leaguers at this point. This year, those pitchers are…
RHP Felix Hernandez
LHP Ryan Feierabend
LHP Cesar Jimenez
RHP Tyrone “Laz” Lamont
LHP Bobby Livingston
LHP Shawn Nottingham
LHP Thom Oldham
Interestingly enough, when check out
BP’s analysis on minor league pitchers, you’ll also get Felix, Feierabend, and Livingston right away. Check it out league by league and you’ll find Jimenez at third in the Cal League (behind the other two) and Nottingham as third in the Northwest. They aren’t quite as high on Oldham as my calculations seem to be, and they don’t have any data from Arizona, so there’s noting on Lamont, but five out of seven still isn’t bad.
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M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 1
Well, the World Series is over, free agency has yet to begin, and we’ve now entered one of those unholy times of the year when there’s no news and everything is electricity and anticipation. (Actually, because of Finnegan, everyone’s doing the panic right now). Which makes now a near perfect time for me to get rolling with the minor league reviews. I’ve got a couple of Phantom Planet CDs in queue and some time to kill, so let’s start with…
The Great Pitching Review, 2004 edition
By The Numbers
For the sake of consistency this year, I’ve stopped tracking time spent as split between multiple levels and have started tracking it as performance at each level. It’s a little less messy and with more promotions this year than last, it keeps things simpler.
Let’s start out with the WHIP for all the pitchers from Triple-A on down to the Dominican Summer League. WHIP, broken down, is walks plus hits per innings pitched. It’s like an on-base percentage for pitchers, without the percentage part. Exceptional pitchers put up a WHIP that’s close to 1.00 or below, meaning they’ve been allowing an average of one baserunner per inning. For example, 2004 Cy Young contender and Minnesota Twin Johan Santana put up a WHIP of 0.92.
An increase in WHIP by even a few tenths of a point is still going to make an impact though, and your counter example in that is Ryan Franklin, who had a WHIP of 1.42 this season. Contrast that with last season when that number was 1.23, or roughly the same as Bobby Madritsch put up with the M’s this year.
As you can tell, WHIP can also be largely defense dependant, so like all other stats and numerical means of measuring a player’s success, they aren’t perfect. WHIP isn’t going to factor in a pitcher not having a grip on his offspeed pitch, losing a few MPH off his fastball, or experiencing prolonged control issues. This is just the end sum of what they did in a season, and as such, it’s best to compare it to previous performances at other levels to understand it in a better context.
Since the major league average WHIP this season was right at 1.40, we’ll use that as the dividing line for the minor leagues.
Tacoma
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
*Sherrill, Geor 27 50.1 42 9 1.01
*Blackley, Trav 22 110.1 100 47 1.33
*Madritsch, Bob 29 62.1 61 26 1.40
Atchison, Scot 29 69.1 71 26 1.40
Nageotte, Clint 24 80.2 78 35 1.40
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*Williams, Rand 29 79.1 68 46 1.44
Baek, Cha Seung 24 72.2 85 24 1.50
*Anderson, Cra 24 92.1 115 42 1.70
Hoerman, Jared 26 62.1 68 40 1.73
Martinez, Gusta 29 99.1 118 55 1.74
*Thornton, Matt 28 83.0 85 63 1.78
San Antonio
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
Taylor, Aaron 27 37.1 27 14 1.10
Hernandez, Feli 19 57.1 47 21 1.19
Buglovsky, Chri 25 121.0 121 45 1.37
Guttormson, Ric 28 65.2 68 24 1.40
--------------------------------------------------------------
*Devey, Phil 27 70.0 75 25 1.43
*Key, Chris 27 102.0 119 27 1.43
Dorman, Rich 26 108.2 93 64 1.44
*Rall, Tim 25 65.0 62 35 1.49
Done, Juan 24 153.1 165 70 1.53
*Thomas, Jared 24 59.2 57 38 1.59
Cortez, Renee 22 52.2 61 24 1.61
*Cate, Troy 24 56.2 74 20 1.66
Fruto, Emiliano 20 68.1 77 37 1.67
Inland Empire
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
*Jimenez, Cesa 20 86.1 80 19 1.15
*Livingston, Bo 22 186.2 187 30 1.16
Hernandez, Feli 19 92.0 85 26 1.21
*Pizarro, Melvi 27 70.0 64 24 1.26
*Oldham, Thom 22 42.0 47 6 1.26
Soto, Darwin 23 67.1 61 24 1.26
*Martinez, Migu 22 41.2 38 17 1.32
Sandoval, Juan 24 168.1 184 43 1.35
Fulmer, T.A. 25 96.0 109 21 1.35
*Rowland-Smith 22 99.2 107 30 1.37
Watson, Tanner 22 69.1 75 22 1.40
--------------------------------------------------------------
Huber, Jon 23 139.1 149 58 1.49
Wisconsin
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
Oldham, Thom 22 116.2 108 30 1.18
Mackintosh, Jas 24 149.1 137 44 1.21
Feierabend, Ry 19 161.0 158 44 1.25
Hrynio, Mike 22 62.1 47 33 1.28
Acosta, Nibaldo 22 161.2 170 42 1.31
Moorhead, Bran 25 145.2 142 50 1.32
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Stitt, Bryan 22 91.1 101 28 1.41
Chang, Kenly 22 63.1 70 20 1.42
O’Flaherty, Er 20 57.1 83 23 1.85
Everett
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
Snyder, Jason 22 44.1 32 16 1.08
*Nottingham, S 20 88.2 74 29 1.16
Bello, Cibney 22 34.1 25 15 1.17
Rivera, Mumba 24 59.0 44 25 1.17
Cullen, Phil 25 31.1 22 17 1.24
Trolia, Aaron 23 41.0 39 17 1.37
Flores, Ruben 20 53.2 50 24 1.38
--------------------------------------------------------------
Lowe, Mark 21 38.1 42 14 1.46
Jensen, Aaron 19 80.0 90 36 1.58
*Hall, Vance 21 34.2 42 17 1.70
Forbes, Terry 20 20.0 29 7 1.80
*Bergdall, Kend 22 55.0 68 40 1.96
*Perry, Brandon 20 28.1 40 17 2.01
Peoria
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
Snyder, Jason 22 25.0 20 7 1.08
*Brandt, Adam 22 21.1 16 8 1.13
Lamont, Tyrone 19 32.2 25 13 1.16
Grasley, Stephe 23 28.1 32 1 1.16
--------------------------------------------------------------
Arias, Oliver 22 56.1 63 26 1.58
Clement, Donald 23 28.1 38 7 1.59
Woerman, Joe 22 27.0 27 16 1.59
*Fagan, Paul 20 60.1 68 29 1.61
Carter, Eric 21 44.1 49 25 1.67
Martinez, Roman 20 21.2 27 10 1.71
Dorn, Tim 22 18.0 15 20 1.94
Lockwood, Jon 23 41.1 43 30 1.77
Venezuela
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
Guaramato, Edg 20 51.1 34 21 1.07
Venaga, Alfred 18 39.0 34 8 1.08
Gutierrez, Alej 19 21.2 14 10 1.11
Rodriguez, Irvi 19 21.2 15 10 1.15
*Escalona, Jose 19 43.0 27 23 1.16
Correa, Felix 19 40.1 29 18 1.17
*Castro, Hugo 21 36.2 28 17 1.23
Vega, Marwin 18 47.2 36 23 1.24
Alarcon, Kelvin 19 24.0 16 15 1.29
--------------------------------------------------------------
Acosta, Jorge 21 32.2 34 13 1.44
Gaetano, Diomny 20 47.0 59 12 1.51
*Jimenez, Jose 18 27.2 25 20 1.63
Uviedo, Ronald 18 33.0 44 13 1.73
Yerovi, Carlos 24 21.0 19 19 1.81
Figueroa, Carl 20 23.1 17 32 2.10
Dominican Republic
Name Age IP H BB WHIP
Mercedes, Mich ? 62.2 45 12 0.91
Fernandez, Eddy ? 72.1 49 17 0.91
Bonilla, Toma ? 48.1 28 18 0.95
Soto, Sterling ? 60.2 42 19 1.01
Luna, Jael ? 49.0 45 8 1.08
Suriel, Jose ? 36.1 30 11 1.13
Zapata, Juan ? 44.1 39 13 1.17
Perez, Victor ? 48.0 38 20 1.21
Colon, Carlos ? 62.0 44 32 1.23
Torres, Leonar ? 28.2 28 11 1.36
--------------------------------------------------------------
Dilone, Nativid ? 29.1 23 21 1.50
Torres, Victor ? 21.1 21 17 1.78
This review is broken into four pieces for easy review and editting. More parts coming soon.
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Opinion Poll
As I write this, I'm actively working on the minor league pitching review. The blasted thing is getting on four pages, typed, single space, 12 point Times New Roman, and that doesn't consider the fact that I'll be pasting two incredibly large tables, each roughly two and a half pages long, into the middle of them. The more I write, the more I have to say. So now, I'm throwing it out to you guys. Would you prefer that I post it all as one post of absolutely absurd proportions, or clip it up into what would probably end up as a four-part series? Keep in mind that the choice is not likely to affect how much quicker it gets done, I'm planning on posting everything at roughly the same time regardless.
Also, heads up, I've added a link to
Independant Thinking, an indie league blog, onto the sidebar and have fixed some of the other glaring problems therein. More changes will be made later, so if you want to do an exchange, now may be a good time to bring it to my attention.
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I forgot to note it earlier, but
week four of the Winter League recaps is now up at ITP. Rick Guttormson is mowing down VWLers like they're nothing at all. It only got worse today (1.2 IP, no hits, three Ks).
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