Mariner Minors: 10/31/2004

Mariner Minors

Friday, November 05, 2004

What ever happened to the Little Unit?

It being the news-deficient time of the year, Jim Street tries to get the scoop.

First paragraph...

Time is running out on Ryan Anderson.

Ah, how many times I've heard that. In more seriousness, it appears that RA has finally developed a work ethic and is looking to make a comeback. I've heard that he was throwing in the mid 90s towards the end of the year and could've gotten into a game in Arizona, but they didn't want to push him too much.

The newfound desire to train may help him in the long-term in getting to the major leagues, but whether he will be a starter or a reliever isn't clear just yet. On one hand, there are those who have said that, due to the health of his arm and previous problems with endurance, he may be little more than a high-powered reliever. On the other hand, I would like to think that his training regiment may give him a better chance in the long run than he might have had previously. Regardless, he has always been one of the more interesting stories in the system and even now, four years after he threw his last pitch in a game, I still see questions about him every few months. I'm pulling for him, but I don't know if I buy into the reports just yet.

posted by Jay Y. @ 6:18 PM

Transaction Update (11/5/04):

Courtesy of Baseball America, which has become basically the only reliable source of transaction news in recent months, we now have a new list of changes...

Signed RHPs Ira Brown, Ricky Guttormson and Gregorio Rosario, C Brian Moon, LHP Melvin Pizarro. Released LHP Craig Anderson, RHPs Kenly Chang and Chao Wang, SS Francisco Gerez and IF Pedro Ozoria. Reinstated OFs Sebastien Boucher and Gregory Halman and RHP Chia An Huang from inactive list.

Guttormson, 28, is presently tearing the Venezuelan Winter League apart. In seven appearances, he has two wins, two saves, a K/9 of 13.00, and an opposing batting average of .100. There isn't a great deal of precedent for this outburst, considering his San Antonio numbers were very good, but not necessarily characteristic of sheer dominance. If he has mysteriously turned a corner, then he may get a ST invite as a non-roster and might not be a bad addition if they're still looking for a groundball-styled righty reliever.

Rosario, I have no data on. I'm assuming that this isn't the second incarnation of Melvin Gregorio Rosario, who used to be a catcher in the San Diego, Chi Sox, and Baltimore systems. More likely than not, he is one of the more noted talents in the scouting for Dominican Summer League or Venezuelan Summer League players. I'm leaning towards Dominican on that one.

Moon, 27, was nothing impressive in 2004. In fact, he was the worst batter on the Missions team (most offensive, ha ha, I'm punny...). With Horner retired and the status of Pat Borders yet unknown, it helps to have a veteran catch-and-throw guy in the high minors.

Pizarro, 27, was the streakiest reliever I have seen in recent memory in the minors, alternating between periods of mind-numbing dominance (entire months without an earned run) and being completely incapable of getting a runner out the rest of the time. Roster filler in Double-A.

Anderson, 24, is on his first step towards the Jamie Moyer career path, minus the big league debut. He is one of many southpaws that gets caught in the jump from high-A to Double-A and just cannot seem to transition. The increased hit rates and home run rates in recent years have been a surefire indicator of that. He's still young, and still has a great deal to learn, so I wouldn't say that he's done unless he believes he is. He might find his way back onto a club as a Triple-A filler, maybe in a west coast team that has a good Australian connection, in which case San Diego might seem like a decent bet.

Chang, 22, is one of what seems like only a handful of Nicaraguan players in the minor leagues. He was given a coupleo f opportunities as a spot starter this year, but seems to be primarily a reliever. No great loss, and his release doesn't surprise me. He stays in the strike zone a bit too much and there are enough college-level pitchers drafted in 2004 to make him relatively expendable. Should sign on with another club, but is likely to repeat at mid-A until he can get more bite to his pitches.

Wang, 18?, didn't throw a pitch this season and only threw an inning and two-thirds last season. I'm assuming he had arm troubles of some sort, but it's a moot point now; the first Chinese prospect in major league baseball goes out with little fanfare. Perhaps he'll return to his native country and pick up from there; they could certainly use him.

Gerez, 24?, pulled a homer earlier in the season when, upon promotion from Peoria to Tacoma, he announced that he was 24 or 25 and not 19 as originally thought. Anyone who actually looked at the guy could've told you that. Regardless, the M's have not taken kindly to being lied to in recent years, be it age or injury. No brainer, no loss.

Ozoria, 21, has fallen considerably since being named the Dominican Summer League's Mariners Team MVP a few years back, but when he's putting up a .713 OPS in Arizona as a third baseman, he doesn't have a lot going for him. More of a testament to how weak the Dominican scouting was until this year than anything else.

Boucher (23), Halman (17), and Huang (17) were all collectively caught in the work visa debacle coming into the season, along with a number of other prospects that just stayed in their respective summer leagues. Boucher is a Canadian outfielder with 70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, Halman is a lefty-batting first baseman from the Netherlands who was leading or near the lead of their league in most offensive categories, and Huang is a hard-throwing Taiwanese groundball pitcher. Now you know, and knowing is half the battle.

posted by Jay Y. @ 5:00 PM

BA's Review on the overall 2004 draft

In their free stuff, BA has ranked all the talent overall in the 2004 draft and the M's come up in a few places... Any guesses?

Best Pro Debut (HS):
3. Matt Tuiasosopo

Best Athlete:
4. Matt Tuiasosopo

Most Intriguing Background (Non-baseball):
2. Matt Tuiasosopo

Best Draft-and-Follows from 2004:
4. Michael Saunders, rhp/of

I've seen Saunders across the board as a RHP, OF, 3B, 1B... but unfortunately I just don't have time to comment on him at the moment, other than I've gotten a few questions on him and many are intrigued by him.

Jim Callis of Baseball America is stuck in traffic, but he will be holding another chat on these rankings and the 2004 draft at approximately 3:15 pm ET, 12:15 pm PT, which is quite soon now. If you have a few pressing questions, now might be the time, but it wasn't as if the M's had a stellar draft beyond Tui.

I'll be adding a pretty big transaction update later in the day, since that list has also recently been updated.

posted by Jay Y. @ 11:52 AM

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

BA's 2004 Draft Report Card

As I've mentioned earlier, Baseball America is releasing a draft report card for each time right now. They touched on the AL West yesterday, and here's how the rankings ended up...

Best Pro Debut, Athlete, Pure Hitter: Tui
Best Raw Power: Tui, Marshall Hubbard
Fastest Runner: Jermaine Brock, Sebastian Boucher
Best Defensive Player: Rob Johnson, Jeff Dominguez
Best Fastball: Mark Lowe (Mumba Rivera comes in second)
Best Breaking Ball: Mumba Rivera (curve), Aaron Trolia (slider)
Closest to Majors: Mark Lowe or Rob Johnson
Best Late-Round Pick: Steve Uhlmansiek, a lefty who recently had arm surgery
The One Who Got Away: J.P. Arencibia, a prep catcher who is going to Tennessee.

posted by Jay Y. @ 3:17 PM

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Minor League MVPs

Just when I thought my work was done... The Seattle Mariners have name their minor league MVPs for the year. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo was named Player of the Year and right-hander Felix Hernandez was Pitcher of the Year. No surprises there. As for the individual levels, they went like...


AAA Tacoma:      1B A.J. Zapp          LH Randy Williams 

AA San Antonio:  OF Shin-soo Choo      RH Rich Dorman 

A Inland Empire: OF Jon Nelson         LH Bobby Livingston 

A Wisconsin:     OF Wladimir Balentien LH Ryan Feierabend 

                                       LH Thomas Oldham 

Short-A Everett: SS Oswaldo Navarro    LH Shawn Nottingham 

Rookie Peoria:    C Daniel Santin      RH Roman Martinez 

Venezuelan:     INF Luis Valbuena      LH Jose Escalona 

Dominican:       OF Jairo Hernandez    RH Sterling Soto

Some surprises here, for one, the organization seems higher on Dorman than I originally thought.

Second, Navarro? Interesting distinction for a guy who was demoted mid-season. I would have given the award to Casey Craig, Yung-Chi Chen, or Brent Johnson before Navarro, but these things have been known to happen with the awards.

The Roman Martinez thing is even more screwed up, as nearly every pitcher put up better numbers than him. I would've gone with Jason Snyder, or Lamont, or even Brandt and Grasley.

No real surprises in the summer leagues though, Valbuena's a no-brainer and Escalona was their best starter so far as consistency. As for Jairo Hernandez, he's an OF who put up a .332/.401/.500 line in his first year in the Dominican Summer League. He has power and speed to burn, and might become something interesting in the future. Soto's performance was as his first name advertises (sports writer's dream), but a lot of pitchers there were unusually good this year. I would have given the nod to Eddy Fernandez, personally.

posted by Jay Y. @ 3:28 PM

M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 4

Well, we've hit the final part of the series, which means I should be wrapping up right now. For easy navigation, here are the previous parts in the series...

M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 1 (introduction and WHIP charts)
M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 2 (K/BB charts and sifting through numbers)
M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 3 (analysis of the numbers)

The Rest of the System

Naturally, when you’re going by the numbers like that, you skip over a lot of guys who are good, but just don’t meet the rest of the requirements. After wading my way through the rest of this, I would be demanding to know about more publicized names and other guys who run along the “high-risk, high-reward” lines. Congratulations, that’s what this is for.

Nageotte and Blackley were the two biggest non-Felix names coming into the season and, despite their struggles, both were actually thisclose to making the hard list. Despite that, every sportswriter in the region was screaming “ABANDON SHIP!” a while ago and claiming that the supposed strength of the system was nothing more than an illusion. To them I would say, you have to take each situation in context. Nageotte’s typical fastball coming into the season was in the 91-94 range, and due to some back problems, it was a few MPH less. This forced him to pick at the corners a bit more than he usually would. Also consider that a certain manager was calling him up and calling him a bullpen guy to anyone who would listen. Clint should have been in Tacoma working on his change-up just like he worked on his fastball in the previous season, and the poor results we saw with him are more indicative of his sudden loss in velocity than him not being as good as advertised. Jim Callis gave me the same story with Blackley: he lost some velocity on his fastball and just couldn’t provided enough distinction between his pitches. Couple that with his change-up, which was mostly gone for the entire season, and his struggles are not in the least bit surprising, particularly when he was trying too hard back in Tacoma. We now have some concerns about Nags’ back and Travis’ arm, but I’m not inclined to think that these are serious issues, or that they won’t be able to bounce back.

On another local paper note: George Sherrill was the best reliever in Tacoma and the entire system this season. This is not a topic of debate. I know, that we have heard people sing the praises of Atchison and how he closed, but the facts are: 1) Sherrill had nearly twice as many saves 2) Sherrill is a lefty 3) Sherrill didn’t have his best stuff when we saw him 4) Every one of Sherrill’s numbers were better than Atch’s. Though Putz only saw 8.1 innings in Tacoma, his numbers were also worse than Sherrill’s. Any number of people would like to say there is value in having a lefty setup man, but if Eddie is gone, then I say that we MUST look at George before we assume that J.J. or Scott is going to get it by default.

Beyond that, I’m having trouble speaking to all the things I want to. I could probably say something on each pitcher in the system and stretch this piece out forever, but instead I’ll aim to be brief and cut it down to some bullet points…

* It probably doesn’t serve much point repeating what we already know, but Madritsch seemed to dial it up a notch in the big leagues as some guys are prone to doing. I support the idea of him being in the rotation, particularly now that it’s in question whether or not Daisuke Matsuzaka will be posted.

* I’m watching Rich Dorman and Rick Guttormson for next year. Both are older that you want in prospects, but both have had their share of problems (Dorman used to be a catcher, Guttormson was in the indie leagues) and both sport some nasty breaking pitches (curve for Dorman, slider for Guttormson).

* Taylor has been pitching without his typical velocity, and it seems that he’s learning how to pitch successfully rather than just throwing.

* Fruto doesn’t have incredible stuff, but his age compared to the league he’s in leaves me intrigued. I’ve suggested before that they leave him at one level two years in a row and I’m standing by that this year too.

* Miguel Martinez was looking like one of the premier left-handed relievers in the system coming into the year, but inexplicably fell off a cliff (as did his lower level counterpart, Brandon Perry). Don’t know why exactly. On the other hand, Darwin Soto seemed to step it up a little late in the season and may be useful in the future.

* Huber may end up a reliever soon, depending on how he does in the AFL and if the club buys into it. They like his stuff, but he does get hit a lot…

* Wisconsin’s pitching staff was anchored by two guys who were a lot older than the level in Mackintosh and Moorhead. I don’t know how this bodes for them coming up, but I won’t be terribly interested in either of them until they do it at the higher levels, Double-A at least. Out of the rest of the crowd there, I would say I’m most intrigued by Hrynio and his sick K rates. Regardless, the 2005 Inland Empire pitching staff is set to look very different from what the 2004 T-Rats started with.

* As frequent readers would well know, I was pretty high on Mumba Rivera. BA is now grading him as having the second-best fastball in the M’s 2004 draft as well as the best curveball. Of course, his age compared to the level he was at was none too impressive, but he hasn’t been pitching that long either. He shouldn’t be lower than IE next year.

* Snyder also stands out, not because his stuff was excellent but because he knows how to attack the strike zone, and not many pitchers do. Speaking of which, memo to Aaron Jensen: trust your stuff and use it.

* Guys like Brandt and Grasley seem like candidates to skip up to Wisconsin next year from Peoria, and Lamont should also get consideration there as well. Fagan was also on track for that and dominated the league until he got hit by a stretch of three or four starts that were absolutely horrible and made his overall line look a lot worse. They might look over that, but the safest bet would be a starting rotation spot in 2005 Everett.

* In the Summer Leagues, there are a number of candidates that could be considered to make the jump, an unusually high number, in fact. Usually, the club has been rather picky about who they’ve gone with and have generally brought over two pitcher and one or two position players max from each league, but they may not have the option this time. It’s also entirely possible that some of them were intended for US shores and couldn’t get work visas this year.

*This wasn’t a good year for predicting pitching, due to injuries to a handful of guys I was looking at in-depth. In addition to Blackley and Nageotte, I’m also looking for a rebound for Eric O’Flaherty and Ivan Blanco next year, probably at the same levels they began at this year. O’Flaherty is still one of my favorite guys because he distinctly breaks the soft-tossing lefty mold, or at least he did before going down. Blanco is a bit of a RH power pitcher, nasty curve, totally destroyed the VSL in 2003. Both are high-potential, but they now seem to have injury risks attached.

Looking forward to 2005, there are a few debuts I’m looking forward to. Aussie right-hander Aaron Thorne is set to debut next year with the rest of his mates who signed earlier in the year, and Thorne’s FB hit 90 a few times when they signed him as a 17-year-old, and has probably added a bit of velocity since. He’s also reputed to have a good slider, but I don’t know how good. Edgar Guaramato is one of the many guys who could make the jump, but based on his VWL performance and his age, I’ll say he will. His story is similar to that of Rafael Soriano, except he was an infielder, has a MPH or two less velocity as of now, less control, and more polish on his slider. I’m waiting for him to do something special in the winter leagues so I can write a piece on him for ITP… Taiwanese right-hander Chia-An Huang also intrigues me greatly, and draws comparisons to Rockies prospect Chin-Hui Tsao with perhaps a bit more velocity. It was an excellent year overall for int’l signings, which pleases me.

There you have it, more information than you probably cared to have. I’d say that this was definitely a down year for pitching, but there’s always next year (which is certain to have surprises in store as well). Pitching still looks like it will be the strength of the club for at least few years to come. But if you still have questions and things you want to come back to, I'll be happy to come back and update this particular post later.

As for me, I've had enough math for one day (most insane thing I've done in recent memory, underscored by the fact that I'll do it again soon), so I'm going to go tune out to political spin machines and... more numbers on election returns. (cussing)

posted by Jay Y. @ 2:39 PM

M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 3

This is the third part of the four part series. Part one, concerning WHIP, can be found here, and the second part on K/BB rates can be found here.

By The Gut

Less numbers, more talk, as I'm sure Tyler's eyes have glazed over by this point (fret not, fellow English major). We’ve gotten the list down to seven prospects that project well into the majors right now, what will they be doing next year and what does their future look like?

Felix is number one, no question, and if he ever does get a chance to break out his slider (91 mph, rumored to be better than all his other pitches) and doesn’t have his arm fall off (his mechanics are good enough not to worry too much about it), he’ll be one of the top pitchers in the league, if not the top. Felix will probably start out in San Antonio, then move up to Tacoma midseason.

Feierabend and Oldham are cut from the same “change-up is best pitch” cloth that the M’s seem to buy stock in. They pitched about the same as well, with Oldham getting the edge in every category and striking out guys about twice as often as Feierabend, who wasn’t so bad, mind you. The difference is that Oldham is three years older and has a more polished third pitch in his slider, while Feierabend is more likely to improve with age and his curve isn't quite as good yet. Oldham was on pace if not a little behind from where he should be to start out the year, while Feierabend took a challenge and ran with it. Both guys have a good knowledge of how to pitch to hitters, so it’s easy to predict success for both of them, but dominance is another question. Feierabend will be starting 2005 in the Cal League, while Oldham will either stay there, or move up to the Texas League. Either way, he should see time there next year.

Jimenez is an oddity as a sort of “tweener” pitcher. He has a career ERA of 2.70 in the US, and no one in the VSL stood any chance against him, but up until this year he had been doing it primarily with his fastball and his change-up. It’s believed that one of the main reasons he didn’t have success in starting during his tenure in Wisconsin was because he didn’t have a breaking pitch. This year, he’s added a breaking pitch which isn’t reported to be anything special, just an average slurve type thing, but he put up his best career numbers using it in a league that’s generally hitter friendly. Why is that? Well, he was dominating hitters before with a mid to high 80s fastball and an above-average change-up, and he’s thought to be one of the more intelligent pitchers in the organization. He’ll have to polish up his command on the slurve and his fastball if he’s thinking of getting another starting audition, but I have no doubt he’ll survive the usually tough transition to Double-A for next year.

Livingston is, in some respects, another lefty who has mastered the change-up, but in other respects he sets himself apart from everyone else. First off, he has even less velocity, clocking in at the low to mid 80s most of the time. B-Liv threw in the low 90s in high school, but it seems like he’s sacrificed a large part of his velocity for near impeccable command. In addition, he also has more polished breaking pitches than the others, most notably a curve that clocks in around 70 and can be thrown for a strike whenever. I haven’t run a study on him or Oldham yet for the transition to Double-A, but right now Livingston projects better than any non-prodigy in the system. Definitely one of the more interesting pitchers right now and definitely overlooked.

Nottingham is the guy that I feel a little more liberty in talking about, having seen him a couple of times this season and one of those without his best stuff. BA sells him as being the next in line of change-up pitchers, but I’m not entirely certain myself. I’ve seen his fastball cut in hard to right-handed batters, and I’ve voiced some enthusiasm about the pitch before, and I agree with BA’s assessment on his curve; it’s not nasty, but he can throw it for strikes whenever. While I did see good things from the change-up, I don’t know that I saw it often enough to make a clean assessment, so I’ll take BA’s lead and add that if it is his best pitch, then that speaks well to his abilities as a pitcher. He’s more like Livingston than Oldham and Feierabend, just with more stuff and less command. I’d like to see him take on Advanced-A next year, but I won’t complain too much if he ends up in Wisconsin. He's reported to have an excellent work ethic (showed up to ST very early this year and rented out a house with some fellow players), so it makes sense for him to continue putting up good numbers.

As for Laz Lamont, I can’t speak on him as much as I’d like to be able to. He has the curious distinction of being the only right-hander on the hard list, but he’s right on the edge there and needs to work on polishing his control a bit and maybe pitching in pressure situations. His peripherals were better than the ones both Feierabend and Nottingham put up in Arizona last year, but he seemed to get into a little more trouble (reflected in his higher ERA) and had a few more wild pitches than you’d generally like. I can’t speak to what kind of stuff Tyrone throws, but he seems to be a step above other international signings the M’s have made in Oleg Korneev and Chao Wang (feel free to laugh, Jeff), who have become little more than trivia answers. I’d expect him to get a shot to start in Everett next year, with an outside chance of breaking with Wisconsin, depending on what he does and how the college-drafted pitchers from this year fare.

posted by Jay Y. @ 2:36 PM

M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 2

This is the second in a four part series. The first part, concerning WHIP, can be found here.

Next up, we have the K/BB charts. K/BB works better at judging a pitcher’s control. Even if a pitcher isn’t particularly strikeout prone, they should be able to maintain a solid ratio of strikeouts to walks. The extreme high-end of the spectrum would be guys like Brad Radke and Stephen Grasley (see below) who seem regard the walk as a sort of mortal enemy. Of course, these pitchers are not necessarily strikeout pitchers, so to compensate for that, I add the K/9, or strikeouts per nine innings pitched next to it. That way, it’s easier to gauge what the pitcher is doing when he throws the ball and, in some cases, how good his stuff is. Pitchers can still be effective in the right situations, in spite of lackluster K/BB. Check out Jeff Nelson.

For lack of resources on minor league pitching as a whole, we’ll consider the average line as a K/BB of 2.00, as the major league average this season was 1.96. Again, as with the WHIP, consider that if a player really is that good, they’d probably be putting up a number better than average.

Tacoma


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

*Sherrill, Geor	27	50.1	6.89	11.09	4

Atchison, Scot	29	69.1	2.92	9.87	8

Baek, Cha Seung	24	72.2	2.33	6.94	7

*Madritsch, Bob	29	62.1	2.04	7.65	3

--------------------------------------------------------------

Nageotte, Clint	24	80.2	1.80	7.03	9

*Blackley, Trav	22	110.1	1.70	6.53	14

*Anderson, Cra	24	92.1	1.55	6.34	18

*Williams, Rand	29	79.1	1.39	7.26	6

Martinez, Gusta	29	99.1	1.27	6.34	9

*Thornton, Matt	28	83.0	1.17	8.02	4

Hoerman, Jared	26	62.1	0.85	4.91	7

San Antonio


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

*Devey, Phil	27	70.0	2.84	9.13	8

Hernandez, Feli	19	57.1	2.76	9.10	3

Taylor, Aaron	27	37.1	2.64	8.92	2

Guttormson, Ric	28	65.2	2.33	7.67	7

*Key, Chris	27	102.0	2.33	5.50	7

*Rall, Tim	25	65.0	2.23	10.80	12

Dorman, Rich	26	108.2	2.14	11.34	8

--------------------------------------------------------------

Cortez, Renee	22	52.2	1.92	7.86	8

Buglovsky, Chri	25	121.0	1.80	6.02	7

*Cate, Troy	24	56.2	1.75	5.56	7

*Thomas, Jared	24	59.2	1.68	9.65	4

Fruto, Emiliano	20	68.1	1.51	7.38	6

Done, Juan	24	153.1	1.23	5.05	19

Inland Empire


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

*Oldham, Thom	22	42.0	9.33	12.00	5

*Livingston, Bo	22	186.2	4.70	6.80	15

Hernandez, Feli	19	92.0	4.38	11.15	5

*Jimenez, Cesa	20	86.1	4.26	8.44	3

Fulmer, T.A.	25	96.0	4.09	8.06	7

*Rowland-Smith	22	99.2	3.97	10.74	10

*Martinez, Migu	22	41.2	3.18	11.66	5

Sandoval, Juan	24	168.1	2.77	6.36	21

Watson, Tanner	22	69.1	2.59	7.40	3

*Pizarro, Melvi	27	70.0	2.42	7.46	7

Huber, Jon	23	139.1	2.37	8.91	13

Soto, Darwin	23	67.1	2.25	7.22	2

Wisconsin


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

Oldham, Thom	22	116.2	4.40	10.18	15

Moorhead, Bran	25	145.2	3.26	10.07	5

Stitt, Bryan	22	91.1	3.21	8.87	10

Mackintosh, Jas	24	149.1	3.16	8.38	18

Hrynio, Mike	22	62.1	2.48	11.84	4

Feierabend, Ry	19	161.0	2.41	5.92	17

Chang, Kenly	22	63.1	2.40	6.82	6

Acosta, Nibaldo	22	161.2	2.26	5.29	14

--------------------------------------------------------------

O’Flaherty, Er	20	57.1	1.65	5.97	3

Everett


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

*Nottingham, S	20	88.2	3.00	8.83	8

Lowe, Mark	21	38.1	2.71	8.92	4

Snyder, Jason	22	44.1	2.44	7.91	2

Bello, Cibney	22	34.1	2.27	8.91	5

--------------------------------------------------------------

Trolia, Aaron	23	41.0	1.94	7.24	5

Rivera, Mumba	24	59.0	1.92	7.32	4

Flores, Ruben	20	53.2	1.67	6.71	8

Forbes, Terry	20	20.0	1.57	4.95	1

Jensen, Aaron	19	80.0	1.56	6.30	12

*Perry, Brandon	20	28.1	1.52	8.26	3

*Hall, Vance	21	34.2	1.47	6.49	4

Cullen, Phil	25	31.1	1.18	5.74	3

*Bergdall, Kend	22	55.0	1.03	6.71	7

Peoria


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

Grasley, Stephe	23	28.1	37.00	11.75	3

Snyder, Jason	22	25.0	4.14	10.44	0

*Brandt, Adam	22	21.1	3.25	10.97	0

Clement, Donald	23	28.1	2.43	5.40	0

Arias, Oliver	22	56.1	2.31	9.59	6

Martinez, Roman	20	21.2	2.10	8.72	1

Lamont, Tyrone	19	32.2	2.08	7.44	2

--------------------------------------------------------------

*Fagan, Paul	20	60.1	1.97	8.50	3

Woerman, Joe	22	27.0	1.69	9.00	0

Carter, Eric	21	44.1	1.40	7.11	0

Dorn, Tim	22	18.0	1.20	12.00	0

Lockwood, Jon	23	41.1	1.10	7.19	2

Venezuela


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

Gaetano, Diomny	20	47.0	3.25	7.47	2

Yerovi, Carlos	24	21.0	3.17	8.14	2

Venaga, Alfred	18	39.0	2.88	8.00	0

*Castro, Hugo	21	36.2	2.18	9.08	0

Guaramato, Edg	20	51.1	2.14	7.89	1

--------------------------------------------------------------

Correa, Felix	19	40.1	1.89	7.59	0

Vega, Marwin	18	47.2	1.87	8.12	1

*Escalona, Jose	19	43.0	1.83	8.79	1

Uviedo, Ronald	18	33.0	1.69	6.00	2

Rodriguez, Irvi	19	21.2	1.60	6.65	1

Gutierrez, Alej	19	21.2	1.50	6.23	2

Acosta, Jorge	21	32.2	1.31	4.68	0

*Jimenez, Jose	18	27.2	1.10	7.16	0

Alarcon, Kelvin	19	24.0	1.00	5.63	1

Figueroa, Carl	20	23.1	0.31	3.86	0

Dominican Republic


Name	        Age	IP	K/BB	K/9	HR

Luna, Jael	?	49.0	7.63	11.20	0

Fernandez, Eddy	?	72.1	3.82	8.09	2

Mercedes, Mich	?	62.2	3.58	6.18	1

Soto, Sterling	?	60.2	2.68	7.57	0

Zapata, Juan	?	44.1	2.61	6.90	1

Torres, Leonar	?	28.2	2.36	8.16	1

Colon, Carlos	?	62.0	2.25	10.45	1

Perez, Victor	?	48.0	2.05	7.69	0

--------------------------------------------------------------

Bonilla, Toma	?	48.1	1.94	6.52	1

Suriel, Jose	?	36.1	1.82	4.95	0

Dilone, Nativid	?	29.1	1.19	7.67	0

Torres, Victor	?	21.1	0.76	5.48	1

So, I’m sure by now you’re thinking, “well, that was a fine bit of grunt work, but what does it mean?” Glad you asked. Figuring in the expected age for each level, starting with 18-19 at the Peoria level and working your way up to 23-24 at the Triple-A level, you can combine the other two charts to find out which pitchers in the M’s system project out as being major leaguers at this point. This year, those pitchers are…

RHP Felix Hernandez
LHP Ryan Feierabend
LHP Cesar Jimenez
RHP Tyrone “Laz” Lamont
LHP Bobby Livingston
LHP Shawn Nottingham
LHP Thom Oldham

Interestingly enough, when check out BP’s analysis on minor league pitchers, you’ll also get Felix, Feierabend, and Livingston right away. Check it out league by league and you’ll find Jimenez at third in the Cal League (behind the other two) and Nottingham as third in the Northwest. They aren’t quite as high on Oldham as my calculations seem to be, and they don’t have any data from Arizona, so there’s noting on Lamont, but five out of seven still isn’t bad.

posted by Jay Y. @ 2:21 PM

M's Minor League Pitching Review, pt. 1

Well, the World Series is over, free agency has yet to begin, and we’ve now entered one of those unholy times of the year when there’s no news and everything is electricity and anticipation. (Actually, because of Finnegan, everyone’s doing the panic right now). Which makes now a near perfect time for me to get rolling with the minor league reviews. I’ve got a couple of Phantom Planet CDs in queue and some time to kill, so let’s start with…

The Great Pitching Review, 2004 edition

By The Numbers

For the sake of consistency this year, I’ve stopped tracking time spent as split between multiple levels and have started tracking it as performance at each level. It’s a little less messy and with more promotions this year than last, it keeps things simpler.

Let’s start out with the WHIP for all the pitchers from Triple-A on down to the Dominican Summer League. WHIP, broken down, is walks plus hits per innings pitched. It’s like an on-base percentage for pitchers, without the percentage part. Exceptional pitchers put up a WHIP that’s close to 1.00 or below, meaning they’ve been allowing an average of one baserunner per inning. For example, 2004 Cy Young contender and Minnesota Twin Johan Santana put up a WHIP of 0.92.

An increase in WHIP by even a few tenths of a point is still going to make an impact though, and your counter example in that is Ryan Franklin, who had a WHIP of 1.42 this season. Contrast that with last season when that number was 1.23, or roughly the same as Bobby Madritsch put up with the M’s this year.

As you can tell, WHIP can also be largely defense dependant, so like all other stats and numerical means of measuring a player’s success, they aren’t perfect. WHIP isn’t going to factor in a pitcher not having a grip on his offspeed pitch, losing a few MPH off his fastball, or experiencing prolonged control issues. This is just the end sum of what they did in a season, and as such, it’s best to compare it to previous performances at other levels to understand it in a better context.

Since the major league average WHIP this season was right at 1.40, we’ll use that as the dividing line for the minor leagues.

Tacoma


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

*Sherrill, Geor	27	50.1	42	9	1.01

*Blackley, Trav	22	110.1	100	47	1.33

*Madritsch, Bob	29	62.1	61	26	1.40

Atchison, Scot	29	69.1	71	26	1.40

Nageotte, Clint	24	80.2	78	35	1.40

--------------------------------------------------------------

*Williams, Rand	29	79.1	68	46	1.44

Baek, Cha Seung	24	72.2	85	24	1.50

*Anderson, Cra	24	92.1	115	42	1.70

Hoerman, Jared	26	62.1	68	40	1.73

Martinez, Gusta	29	99.1	118	55	1.74

*Thornton, Matt	28	83.0	85	63	1.78

San Antonio


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

Taylor, Aaron	27	37.1	27	14	1.10

Hernandez, Feli	19	57.1	47	21	1.19

Buglovsky, Chri	25	121.0	121	45	1.37

Guttormson, Ric	28	65.2	68	24	1.40

--------------------------------------------------------------

*Devey, Phil	27	70.0	75	25	1.43

*Key, Chris	27	102.0	119	27	1.43

Dorman, Rich	26	108.2	93	64	1.44

*Rall, Tim	25	65.0	62	35	1.49

Done, Juan	24	153.1	165	70	1.53

*Thomas, Jared	24	59.2	57	38	1.59

Cortez, Renee	22	52.2	61	24	1.61

*Cate, Troy	24	56.2	74	20	1.66

Fruto, Emiliano	20	68.1	77	37	1.67

Inland Empire


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

*Jimenez, Cesa	20	86.1	80	19	1.15

*Livingston, Bo	22	186.2	187	30	1.16

Hernandez, Feli	19	92.0	85	26	1.21

*Pizarro, Melvi	27	70.0	64	24	1.26

*Oldham, Thom	22	42.0	47	6	1.26

Soto, Darwin	23	67.1	61	24	1.26

*Martinez, Migu	22	41.2	38	17	1.32

Sandoval, Juan	24	168.1	184	43	1.35

Fulmer, T.A.	25	96.0	109	21	1.35

*Rowland-Smith	22	99.2	107	30	1.37

Watson, Tanner	22	69.1	75	22	1.40

--------------------------------------------------------------

Huber, Jon	23	139.1	149	58	1.49

Wisconsin


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

Oldham, Thom	22	116.2	108	30	1.18

Mackintosh, Jas	24	149.1	137	44	1.21

Feierabend, Ry	19	161.0	158	44	1.25

Hrynio, Mike	22	62.1	47	33	1.28

Acosta, Nibaldo	22	161.2	170	42	1.31

Moorhead, Bran	25	145.2	142	50	1.32

--------------------------------------------------------------

Stitt, Bryan	22	91.1	101	28	1.41

Chang, Kenly	22	63.1	70	20	1.42

O’Flaherty, Er	20	57.1	83	23	1.85

Everett


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

Snyder, Jason	22	44.1	32	16	1.08

*Nottingham, S	20	88.2	74	29	1.16

Bello, Cibney	22	34.1	25	15	1.17

Rivera, Mumba	24	59.0	44	25	1.17

Cullen, Phil	25	31.1	22	17	1.24

Trolia, Aaron	23	41.0	39	17	1.37

Flores, Ruben	20	53.2	50	24	1.38

--------------------------------------------------------------

Lowe, Mark	21	38.1	42	14	1.46

Jensen, Aaron	19	80.0	90	36	1.58

*Hall, Vance	21	34.2	42	17	1.70

Forbes, Terry	20	20.0	29	7	1.80

*Bergdall, Kend	22	55.0	68	40	1.96

*Perry, Brandon	20	28.1	40	17	2.01

Peoria


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

Snyder, Jason	22	25.0	20	7	1.08

*Brandt, Adam	22	21.1	16	8	1.13

Lamont, Tyrone	19	32.2	25	13	1.16

Grasley, Stephe	23	28.1	32	1	1.16

--------------------------------------------------------------

Arias, Oliver	22	56.1	63	26	1.58

Clement, Donald	23	28.1	38	7	1.59

Woerman, Joe	22	27.0	27	16	1.59

*Fagan, Paul	20	60.1	68	29	1.61

Carter, Eric	21	44.1	49	25	1.67

Martinez, Roman	20	21.2	27	10	1.71

Dorn, Tim	22	18.0	15	20	1.94

Lockwood, Jon	23	41.1	43	30	1.77

Venezuela


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

Guaramato, Edg	20	51.1	34	21	1.07

Venaga, Alfred	18	39.0	34	8	1.08

Gutierrez, Alej	19	21.2	14	10	1.11

Rodriguez, Irvi	19	21.2	15	10	1.15

*Escalona, Jose	19	43.0	27	23	1.16

Correa, Felix	19	40.1	29	18	1.17

*Castro, Hugo	21	36.2	28	17	1.23

Vega, Marwin	18	47.2	36	23	1.24

Alarcon, Kelvin	19	24.0	16	15	1.29

--------------------------------------------------------------

Acosta, Jorge	21	32.2	34	13	1.44

Gaetano, Diomny	20	47.0	59	12	1.51

*Jimenez, Jose	18	27.2	25	20	1.63

Uviedo, Ronald	18	33.0	44	13	1.73

Yerovi, Carlos	24	21.0	19	19	1.81

Figueroa, Carl	20	23.1	17	32	2.10

Dominican Republic


Name	        Age	IP	H	BB	WHIP

Mercedes, Mich	?	62.2	45	12	0.91

Fernandez, Eddy	?	72.1	49	17	0.91

Bonilla, Toma	?	48.1	28	18	0.95

Soto, Sterling	?	60.2	42	19	1.01

Luna, Jael	?	49.0	45	8	1.08

Suriel, Jose	?	36.1	30	11	1.13

Zapata, Juan	?	44.1	39	13	1.17

Perez, Victor	?	48.0	38	20	1.21

Colon, Carlos	?	62.0	44	32	1.23

Torres, Leonar	?	28.2	28	11	1.36

--------------------------------------------------------------

Dilone, Nativid	?	29.1	23	21	1.50

Torres, Victor	?	21.1	21	17	1.78

This review is broken into four pieces for easy review and editting. More parts coming soon.

posted by Jay Y. @ 2:01 PM

Monday, November 01, 2004

Opinion Poll

As I write this, I'm actively working on the minor league pitching review. The blasted thing is getting on four pages, typed, single space, 12 point Times New Roman, and that doesn't consider the fact that I'll be pasting two incredibly large tables, each roughly two and a half pages long, into the middle of them. The more I write, the more I have to say. So now, I'm throwing it out to you guys. Would you prefer that I post it all as one post of absolutely absurd proportions, or clip it up into what would probably end up as a four-part series? Keep in mind that the choice is not likely to affect how much quicker it gets done, I'm planning on posting everything at roughly the same time regardless.

Also, heads up, I've added a link to Independant Thinking, an indie league blog, onto the sidebar and have fixed some of the other glaring problems therein. More changes will be made later, so if you want to do an exchange, now may be a good time to bring it to my attention.

posted by Jay Y. @ 8:19 PM

Sunday, October 31, 2004

I forgot to note it earlier, but week four of the Winter League recaps is now up at ITP. Rick Guttormson is mowing down VWLers like they're nothing at all. It only got worse today (1.2 IP, no hits, three Ks).

posted by Jay Y. @ 6:17 PM