Mariner Minors: 03/19/2006

Offensive Number Cruncher 2005

By popular request, it's finally here. Big thanks to Churchill for hooking me up with a table template to mess around with.

I'm probably not going to do anything related to pitchers, as Jeff at Lookout Landing did all of that earlier in the offseason.

To recap the formulas used, Runs Created is ((Hits + walks + Pitches Hit By - Caught Stealing - Grounds Into Double Plays) * (Total Bases + .26(Walks - Intentional Walks + Pitches Hit By) + .52(Sacrifices Bunts + Sacrifice flies + Stolen Bases)))/(At-bats + Walks + Pitches Hit By + Sacrifice Bunts + Sacrifice Flies), Runs Created per 27 outs takes that number and divides it by (At-Bats - Hits + Caught Stealing + Sacrifice Hits + Sacrifice Flies + Grounds Into Double Plays), then multiplies it by 27. Secondary Average is (Total Bases - Hits + Stolen Bases - Caught Stealing + Walks) / (At-bats).

I've been liking Secondary Average less and less over the years, because I don't think in an actual game, a double is worth as much as a walk is worth as much as a stolen base. Power hitters and five-tool players can bump up their numbers rather quickly, but catchers are almost always at the bottom of the SECA lists.

If you're looking for league average for any of these stats, well, it's generally in the middle where you see the biggest drop from one player to the next. I didn't bother to calculate it all out this season, but previous years of experience has taught me that the numbers just shake out that way.

And just so no one asks, yes, it's possible for Gerardo Avila to have a higher RC/27 while Humberto Espinoza has the higher Runs Created in the same number of at-bats. You just don't see it happen that often.

(tables and blogger are not good friends, so use of a mouse wheel or the Page Down button on your keyboard is necessary for navigation)

Tacoma Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
*Snelling, Chris	24	OF	136	64.91	10.69
Gonzalez, Wiki	31	C	176	29.54	6.13
*Choo, Shin-soo	23	OF	429	74.15	6.09
Brown, Hunter	26	IF	337	56.12	6.01
Lopez, Jose	22	2B	182	29.32	5.86
Strong, Jamal	27	CF	382	61.48	5.78
*Rifkin, Aaron	27	1B	441	63.14	5.78
*Dobbs, Greg	27	3B	190	29.12	5.70
Nunez, Abraham	29	OF	481	77.80	5.48
Betancourt, Yuniesky	24	SS	183	24.57	4.74
Christianson, Ryan	24	C	253	37.03	4.44
Leone, Justin	29	3B	253	42.21	4.43
Morse, Mike	24	IF	182	23.00	4.28
#Santiago, Ramon	26	SS	441	57.64	4.19

Tacoma Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
*Choo, Shin-soo	23	OF	429	.333	.813
*Rifkin, Aaron	27	1B	441	.331	.804
*Snelling, Chris	24	OF	136	.325	1.005
Nunez, Abraham	29	OF	481	.324	.811
Leone, Justin	29	3B	253	.313	.734
Brown, Hunter	26	IF	337	.267	.814
Christianson, Ryan	24	C	253	.266	.716
Strong, Jamal	27	CF	382	.262	.764
Morse, Mike	24	IF	182	.247	.723
Gonzalez, Wiki	31	C	176	.244	.840
#Santiago, Ramon	26	SS	441	.243	.711
Lopez, Jose	22	2B	182	.225	.860
Betancourt, Yuniesky	24	SS	183	.191	.766
*Dobbs, Greg	27	3B	190	.184	.783

San Antonio Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
Bohn, T.J.	26	OF	438	75.86	6.24
Jones, Adam	20	SS	228	39.03	6.13
Espy, Nate	27	1B	440	77.43	6.02
Hoorelbeke, Jesse	28	1B	450	67.23	5.23
*Bubela, Jaime	27	OF	520	74.11	5.10
Oliveros, Luis	22	C	144	16.94	4.27
Betancourt, Yuniesky	24	SS	227	27.05	4.15
Guzman, Jesus	21	3B	453	56.08	4.10
Rivera, Rene	22	C	212	23.08	3.89
*Harris, Gary	26	OF	457	51.17	3.86
Nelson, Jon	26	OF	375	39.58	3.49
#Castro, Ismael	22	2B	421	40.97	3.25
#Moon, Brian	28	C	161	15.77	3.25
Menchaca, Eddie	25	SS	226	14.23	1.99

San Antonio Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
Espy, Nate	27	1B	440	.339	.824
Hoorelbeke, Jesse	28	1B	450	.311	.777
Bohn, T.J.	26	OF	438	.281	.833
Jones, Adam	20	SS	228	.281	.825
*Bubela, Jaime	27	OF	520	.240	.742
Nelson, Jon	26	OF	375	.232	.690
Guzman, Jesus	21	3B	453	.223	.723
Betancourt, Yuniesky	24	SS	227	.198	.711
#Moon, Brian	28	C	161	.149	.612
#Castro, Ismael	22	2B	421	.147	.675
*Harris, Gary	26	OF	457	.142	.696
Rivera, Rene	22	C	212	.142	.687
Oliveros, Luis	22	C	144	.125	.700
Menchaca, Eddie	25	SS	226	.084	.522

Inland Empire Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
*Boucher, Sebastien	24	CF	213	52.34	9.81
Balentien, Wladimir	21	OF	492	93.39	6.89
Jones, Adam	20	SS	271	51.20	6.68
*Lahair, Bryan	23	1B	509	82.79	5.93
Garciaparra, Michael	23	2B	336	54.43	5.81
Monzon, Erick	24	3B	350	56.96	5.76
*Rogelstad, Matt	23	IF	438	61.85	5.11
Nesbit, Michael	24	CF	218	31.31	5.00
*Garbe, B.J.	25	OF	305	42.99	4.94
#Cabrera, Asdrubal	20	SS	225	29.13	4.52
*Arroyo, Carlos	24	OF	402	49.69	4.44
Collins, Chris	24	C	167	17.66	3.64
Colton, Chris	23	OF	169	18.00	3.52
Ruchti, Justin	25	C	199	13.84	2.17

Inland Empire Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
*Boucher, Sebastien	24	CF	213	.347	.927
Balentien, Wladimir	21	OF	492	.343	.891
Monzon, Erick	24	3B	350	.311	.806
Jones, Adam	20	SS	271	.303	.868
*Lahair, Bryan	23	1B	509	.291	.876
Nesbit, Michael	24	CF	218	.248	.753
*Garbe, B.J.	25	OF	305	.243	.762
Garciaparra, Michael	23	2B	336	.226	.801
#Cabrera, Asdrubal	20	SS	225	.209	.743
Colton, Chris	23	OF	169	.201	.681
Collins, Chris	24	C	167	.173	.651
*Rogelstad, Matt	23	IF	438	.171	.739
Ruchti, Justin	25	C	199	.171	.601
*Arroyo, Carlos	24	OF	402	.137	.718

Wisconsin Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
*Clement, Jeff	22	C	113	23.47	7.92
Colton, Chris	23	OF	203	42.61	7.83
*Boucher, Sebastien	24	OF	178	37.04	7.81
*Hubbard, Thomas	23	1B	391	79.08	7.49
Falcon, Omar	23	C	136	25.42	6.60
#Cabrera, Asdrubal	20	SS	192	35.94	6.56
Wilson, Mike	22	OF	463	83.51	6.35
Johnson, Brent	23	OF	378	60.66	5.69
Chen, Yung-Chi	22	IF	503	71.74	5.12
Tuiasosopo, Matt	19	SS	409	58.57	5.10
Johnson, Rob	22	C	305	41.35	4.65
*Womack, Josh	22	OF	371	48.81	4.61
#Navarro, Oswaldo	21	IF	450	59.44	4.47
Arroyo, Jack	23	UT	247	24.10	3.10
#Green, Brandon	24	IF	356	31.08	2.91

Wisconsin Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
Colton, Chris	23	OF	203	.345	.956
*Hubbard, Thomas	23	1B	391	.343	.883
Wilson, Mike	22	OF	463	.339	.825
*Boucher, Sebastien	24	OF	178	.337	.871
Falcon, Omar	23	C	136	.331	.835
*Clement, Jeff	22	C	113	.331	.908
#Cabrera, Asdrubal	20	SS	192	.292	.881
*Womack, Josh	22	OF	371	.256	.681
Johnson, Brent	23	OF	378	.251	.781
Johnson, Rob	22	C	305	.246	.749
Arroyo, Jack	23	UT	247	.227	.590
Tuiasosopo, Matt	19	SS	409	.225	.749
#Navarro, Oswaldo	21	IF	450	.220	.722
Chen, Yung-Chi	22	IF	503	.215	.755
#Green, Brandon	24	IF	356	.169	.568

Everett Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
Heid, Trevor	23	OF	97	23.14	8.56
*Eastley, Reed	22	IF	201	44.98	8.43
Tucker, J.B.	24	C	174	39.21	7.90
*Saunders, Michael	19	RF	196	33.39	5.85
*Craig, Casey	21	LF	241	37.36	5.57
*Valbuena, Luis	20	2B	287	44.31	5.29
Prettyman, Ron	24	3B	234	32.85	4.93
Gary, Alex	22	OF	139	20.11	4.89
Flaig, Jeff	21	1B	236	33.31	4.73
Sabatella, Bryan	21	LF	169	20.58	3.91
Hall, David	22	OF	102	11.96	3.89
*Santin, Danny	20	C	205	22.71	3.86
Hudson, Robert	22	SS	186	18.85	3.46

Everett Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
Tucker, J.B.	24	C	174	.477	.941
Heid, Trevor	23	OF	97	.463	.961
*Eastley, Reed	22	IF	201	.363	.897
*Valbuena, Luis	20	2B	287	.317	.776
*Saunders, Michael	19	RF	196	.316	.836
*Craig, Casey	21	LF	241	.290	.764
Gary, Alex	22	OF	139	.288	.777
Sabatella, Bryan	21	LF	169	.260	.704
Flaig, Jeff	21	1B	236	.242	.755
Prettyman, Ron	24	3B	234	.239	.755
Hall, David	22	OF	102	.176	.654
*Santin, Danny	20	C	205	.146	.696
Hudson, Robert	22	SS	186	.140	.608

Peoria Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
Garth, Ronald	21	2B	112	29.87	10.48
Hargrove, Andy	24	1B	137	35.99	9.92
*Hernandez, Eddy	21	OF	87	19.30	8.69
Auty, Tim	20	OF	108	23.60	8.28
Graterol, Oswaldo	21	RF	110	23.83	8.25
*Gergel, Kevin	24	DH	133	26.83	7.79
Ledbetter, Curtis	24	DH	122	23.52	7.47
#Guzman, Juan	23	IF	153	23.22	5.70
Liverpool, Marquise	20	OF	94	15.16	5.68
Halman, Greg	18	LF	89	12.08	4.35
Bonilla, Leury	21	3B	125	15.36	3.91
#Zorn, Dean	19	SS	93	10.76	3.80
Ruiz, Donato	23	OF	112	12.82	3.80
#Dominguez, Jeff	19	SS	125	12.56	3.36
Prosise, Nick	21	C	100	9.11	2.96

Peoria Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
Hargrove, Andy	24	1B	137	.409	.945
Garth, Ronald	21	2B	112	.330	1.046
Graterol, Oswaldo	21	RF	110	.309	9.10
Auty, Tim	20	OF	108	.296	.943
*Hernandez, Eddy	21	OF	87	.287	.974
Ledbetter, Curtis	24	DH	122	.287	.864
Halman, Greg	18	LF	89	.281	.799
*Gergel, Kevin	24	DH	133	.278	.903
Liverpool, Marquise	20	OF	94	.223	.742
Bonilla, Leury	21	3B	125	.208	.692
#Zorn, Dean	19	SS	93	.194	.665
#Dominguez, Jeff	19	SS	125	.184	.585
#Guzman, Juan	23	IF	153	.163	.772
Ruiz, Donato	23	OF	112	.149	.695
Prosise, Nick	21	C	100	.130	.636

Aguirre Runs Created
Name	Age	Pos	AB	RC	RC/27
Ortiz, William	20	LF	121	25.96	7.15
Pinto, Manuel	20	OF	102	14.45	5.07
*Avila, Gerardo	19	1B	189	25.52	4.56
Espinoza, Humberto	19	IF	189	23.60	4.54
Fernandez, Jair	19	C	112	12.87	3.95
Lampe, Rayon	19	OF	151	18.51	3.90
Berroteran, Greysom	19	RF	94	10.72	3.76
Benitez, Deybis	18	IF	170	18.41	3.40
Tua, Franklin	21	C	119	11.41	3.28
Robles, Edzul	20	CF	135	13.61	3.06
Gomez, Nicomedes	18	OF	110	9.87	2.86
#Serrano, Terry	19	IF	141	13.55	2.84
Orfila, Pablo	19	3B	125	8.64	2.01
#Extrano, Jetsy	17	IF	89	5.82	1.94

Aguirre Secondary Average
Name	Age	Pos	AB	SECA	OPS
Ortiz, William	20	LF	121	.463	.858
*Avila, Gerardo	19	1B	189	.265	.723
Robles, Edzul	20	CF	135	.252	.598
Lampe, Rayon	19	OF	151	.252	.659
Benitez, Deybis	18	IF	170	.235	.639
#Extrano, Jetsy	17	IF	89	.225	.482
Orfila, Pablo	19	3B	125	.216	.533
#Serrano, Terry	19	IF	141	.213	.585
Fernandez, Jair	19	C	112	.205	.658
Berroteran, Greysom	19	RF	94	.191	.662
Pinto, Manuel	20	OF	102	.157	.721
Gomez, Nicomedes	18	OF	110	.145	.604
Espinoza, Humberto	19	IF	189	.143	.726
Tua, Franklin	21	C	119	.134	.606

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posted by Jay Y. @ 2:57 AM

Choo Optioned

To Triple-A.

It's only appropriate given that Ichiro's coming back.

Move along folks, nothing to see here.

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posted by Jay Y. @ 1:36 PM

Aquasox Idol

Like the idea of trying out for American Idol, but aren't keen on the possibility of performing in front of an audience of millions?

Enjoy singing, but not enough to endure the rigorous schedule of a recording star?

Rather just stick to songs that you already know the words to, in front of a smaller (minor league) baseball crowd?

Well, you can always try out to be the next Aquasox Idol and get a chance to sing either the Star Spangled Banner, God Bless America, or O' Canada at an Aquasox home game this season.

Besides, there's nothing that says you can't go on and be a big rock star after this.

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posted by Jay Y. @ 9:20 PM

Assorted Roster Related Hooplah

Amazing the things you can get to when you have... oh... what's that thing... tip of my tongue... oh yeah, time.

The secondary waves of cuts have come in now, and these are the results:

To Tacoma: OF T.J. Bohn, LHP Bobby Livingston
To Minor League Camp: Cs Jeff Clement and Rob Johnson, IF Asdrubal Cabrera, 1B Todd Sears, IF Matt Tuiasosopo

Bohn's probably your center fielder on opening day for the Tacoma Rainiers, and Bobby Livingston could be their starting pitcher, depending on how the rest of it shakes out. Sears will be there too, either as the DH or the first baseman. As for Clement and Johnson, they'll probably be going to Inland Empire and San Antonio, respectively. Drubie could be in SA too, and Tui is, of course, headed for the Cal League.

I was a little surprised that they cut Bohn so soon after the first set, but Borchard's presence would've knocked him out of the equation even if he had stayed in the big camp.

Let's face it, there aren't really any interesting NRI battles this year. As much as I'd like to see Petagine in the lineup, I just can't think it's happening out of spring training.

Cha Seung Baek is still around as well. Possibly because no one else wanted him.

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posted by Jay Y. @ 9:09 PM

A Word on Sherrill (and Borchard)

I'm otherwise preoccupied with a few different things and should be until maybe Thursday, but in the meantime, I'd like to get in a word or two on George Sherrill, having been a backer of his in the past, though I might not be his biggest fan.

A lot of people have been concerned about the results Sherrill has had in Spring Training, and today's returns certainly aren't going to ease any troubled minds. Some posters in various places seem to be worried that he might be pitching hurt, or perhaps isn't quite as good as he originally appeared to be.

To those people, I can only say: don't worry about it. Give George the job anyway.

Sherrill has a terrible case of what I've come to refer as a high level of pitching inertia.

What does that mean? Well, he doesn't start out that well.

Check out '04 for an example. In Spring Training, he had a 8.10 ERA, lost a game, was giving up 13.50 hits per nine innings, walked 8.10 men per nine, and had a 2.40 WHIP. (He was also striking out 13.50 per nine, all over 3.1 IP).

And what did he do in the regular season in Tacoma?

4-2 record, 2.83 ERA, 7.51 H/9, 1.61 BB/9, 1.01 WHIP, 11.09 K/9.

Let's go for round two, shall we?

In Spring Training, '05 edition, he also lost a game, ran a 5.40 ERA, gave up 10.80 hits per nine, walked 5.40 batters per nine, had a 1.80 WHIP, and K'd "only" 7.20 per nine over the course of ten innings.

And in the regular season?

1-3, 2.28 ERA, 7.23 H/9, 2.28 BB/9, 1.06 WHIP, and 14.45 K/9. And a few of those losses came early on when they were doing some mechanical tinkering.

The point is, Sherrill may never be the guy who wins a job with his performance right out of spring training. He might not even be the guy you want to send out in close games in April, but once you get him going, he's pretty much unstoppable and as durable as he needs to be. The organization NEEDS to show good faith in him in light of that. I know it's not the most comfortable situation in the world, but there isn't really any reason why George Sherrill should not be the M's primary lefty setup man on opening day. Or, if you're nervous about that, make him earn the job on the spot and have him work in that situation from May on.

And, because I might as well get in another shot while I'm at it, there's been some mention of the Matt Thornton/Joe Borchard pushing Roberto Petagine out of a bench spot. To this, I have an odd suggestion: what if we release Matt Lawton? I wouldn't be keen on losing a good #10 or #11 bat who could conceivably be starting elsewhere, but Lawton is a lefty, and so is just about every other outfielder on the 40-man. He doesn't provide much defensively, nor does he give us anything special offensively, so why not give all his at-bats to Borchard in the hopes that the kid finally gets it? It's not as if Lawton can't find another ML job with the way he's been hitting, and given that he'd be owed league minimum by whoever does pick him up, we'd be paying a comparitive pittance to get him off the roster. Meanwhile, we keep Petagine as the late-game PH/1B, use him to hit for our RH infield corps as situation dictates, then send out WFB to play whatever position he has to after that. Well? What say you?

Edit: 12:41 am

Some thinking and a little debate over at Lookout Landing brought me around to a different conclusion.

The only real argument I can come up with playing Borchard while releasing Lawton is that it means we're playing for the future and hoping to succeed right now. It's a nice concept, but my argument hinged on using Borchard in Lawton's role so that Petagine could be kept on the bench. Petagine, as interesting as he is, wouldn't really be "playing for the future", as he's just as old as Lawton/Everett and there's no conclusive evidence that indicates he'll age any better. If Petagine were a few years younger or capable of doing anything other than 1B/DH, I'd insist on the move I proposed, but the roster construction doesn't handle it too well.

For better or worse, we signed Everett and then brought in an arguably better option in Lawton. Following that, we brought in another player who has the potential (keyword there, I'm not saying anything definitively yet) to be a contributor to the team for years to come assuming he's given a chance and performs with it. That's a big if right there.

The idea of carrying six players (plus Everett) who are capable in the outfield doesn't excite me, but I guess that makes Bloomy our primary back-up IF, and whittles it down to five.

It seems as if we're still playing with the idea that we could win now, and I'm not sure we have enough in that area.

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posted by Jay Y. @ 2:53 PM