Mariner Minors
Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects Chat
The
chat wrap from BA's top 100 chat is now posted. A few pertinent Mariners questions came up along the way...
Q: Wayne from West Brookfield, MA asks:
Matt Tuisasosopo had a ton of buzz after a strong showing in rookie ball.....what seperated him from Josh Fields (who made the top 100)....was it the power difference?
A: John Manuel: His future position is unsure, and he didn't exactly tear up the Northwest League. He was discussed, but he's just not quite Top 100 ready. Fields has power at a premium position and had a nice debut in a high Class A league. He needs to control the strike zone better, but there aren't many 3Bs in the big leagues who can hit 20-25 homers, and he can.
Q: Jason from Work asks:
How much more time does Felix Hernandez need in the minors?
A: John Manuel: Need, or will he get? It wouldn't hurt him to spend all or part of 2005 in the minors learning the grind more, facing advanced hitters in Double-A and Triple-A. It sounds like he's nnot going to get much more time in the minors if any, maybe a month at Tacoma? He's lighting up Mariners camp, and I don't know if Ryan Franklin or Jorge Campillo can hold him off.
Q: Jack from Richmond County asks:
Is there really any question as to Felix Hernandez's real age or is it just because he's South American that its an issue? Also, what type of pitcher can he be, who would you compare him to?
A: John Manuel: Not much question on the age after repeated prying, and he's in a class by himself as far as his future, he could be that good.
There were also a few nifty non-Mariners question that might be of some interest to those reading...
Q: Joshua Heines from Trenton, NJ asks:
What are the top five minor league systems in baseball?
A: John Manuel: You'll have to buy the book to get the order, but alphabetically (considering Anaheim, not LA, as the Angels' home, because that court fight isn't over), we have them as Anaheim, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Milwaukee and Minnesota.
Q: David from my desk asks:
Looking over the Top 100 (as well as your recent Top 100 history), what teams -- big market or small market -- should seriously consider dumping their scouting directors? Which teams in recent history have failed most miserably in finding high-level prospects? And which have had the worse luck with injuries (and maybe should consider firing the responsible coaches and trainers)?
A: John Manuel: I'll answer a somewhat different question. I wonder about the Royals' approach to player development, because they repeatedly draft for signability rather than trying to find the players who can do the most to help them. They went for it with Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby and got burned big-time; they went for it again with Zack Greinke, though, and look at that payoff. I hope they budget the money to be bold in 2005 with the No. 2 overall pick, because player development is the only way they will find premium players in the current market. The Tigers already have looked at their system and made the changes you are talking about; the Astros took similar steps with a new scouting director.
Q: Jeff from Los Altos, CA asks:
Do guys like Weaver and Townsend benefit from having time off? I always here about some college pitchers being overworked. Can this layoff for these two actually be a plus?
A: John Manuel: I don't think the time off helps; I wrote a Prospect Pulse over the winter about how clubs like to get their pitchers on throwing schedules and strength programs that put them in line with other pitchers in the organization. Townsend is working out at IMG's facilities in Florida, and Weaver's throwing at the Scott Boras Corperation's facility, so both guys are throwing, but I think it would help more if they were in spring training camps. I think both players would rather be in camps too. Too much time off, I believe, counts pitchers muscle memory and arm strength. Weaver was used very judiciously in college as well; sorry, coach Graham, but Wade was ridden a little harder at Rice. But he hasn't pitched competitively since last June, and that's not good for anybody. Same goes for Weaver.
I think we have a good amount of info on Tui and Felix at this point, including a
solid article by Finny in the Times this morning, so instead, I'll be hitting on the points raised by the off-topics.
First off, I was having some similar thoughts about the Royals and was wondering whether or not they would pick one of the big three (Upton, Maybin, Gordon) with their number two pick. Gordon could be their guy, as he's from the Midwest and might cost a little less, being a college level player. But, as Manuel brought up, the Royals in dire need of a shot in the arm (two in the top 100, and one of them was Teahan, who came via the A's). As things currently stand, it's hard to tell what will happen with the top three until draft day rolls around, with the afformentioned reasons for the Royals and the changes at the top (and possible money issues) for the Diamondbacks. Both teams could do just about anything with their picks and it would seem like you could rationalize it.
On the other note of possible redrafts, I'm not sold on the idea of grabbing anyone from the group of Townsend, Weaver, and Drew, talented though they may be. I don't pretend to know a great deal about college ball, but I'm not convinced Weaver is worth the Mark Prior money he appears to be demanding. That he ended up breaking of negotiations with a hometown team over that sticking point also has me uncertain about him, though the Angels probably could have guessed they wouldn't get too much of a discount, if any. On top of that, it seems risky to draft pitchers/catchers in the first round, or as
Steve Nelson pointed out recently, we seem to have a pretty bad track record doing it. We don't need hitting quite as much as we used to, but there's no sense in not grabbing it now as it seems to be a good commodity this year. Which brings us back to Drew, who I can't make as strong a case against, other than random intangibles and hearsay. The M's have a penchant for selecting shortstops that will have to switch positions eventually, but I'm still not convinced that Drew is their type of player, though by all accounts he is a great hitter. He's not a bad pick, but I don't know if (assuming he's still out there) he'll be a number three level pick, and we certainly haven't had an opportunity of this caliber for a while.
Edit: Steve adds in the comments section that he is not entirely opposed to drafting pitchers and catchers in the first round, but it requires a special set of talents. Catchers need a bat that carries beyond their position, and pitchers need to have the right mental approach in addition to top drawer stuff. But, in general, first-round picks should be used on first-round bats, and the right-handed ones should preferably play a position on the left end of the defensive spectrum, so as not to block big LH bats and to have a change of positions when necessary. I would add to that saying that, unfortunately, the M's have not had a great deal of success in this area as they appear to value a passing grade with each of the tools more than anything else, leaving them with untraditional corner IFs who often lack the power one would desire from the position.
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On Deck Baseball's Top 40 M's Prospects
Scott Rex of On Deck Baseball is alive and well. The rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. His remains were not divvied up between No Limit Texas Hold 'Em and Cheap Prescription Drugs. He gives no clear account of where he has been either, but alludes to some sort of extended, steroid-induced bender, which I can only imagine is one of the worst kinds of bender. Either way, we're glad to have him back.
That said, he has been working on the organizational rankings in his absence and has already finished the
Mariners ranking, which includes the usual top batters, top starters, top relievers, first through fifth teams, top 40 prospects, and 40-man depth chart.
For those unfamiliar with Scott's work, he uses a bunch of different formulas (secret recipes) to make his case, even going down to VSL/DSL levels of play, but he's also up on scouting reports and signings to the degree where he'll throw a guy like Chia-an Huang on the list (who I'm also quite excited about) even though he's not on the radar screen for most people yet.
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News Around the Minors (3/3/05)
Been a while since I ran one of these, hasn't it?
If you've been disatisfied with the recent minor league coverage by the Times and the PI, then head on over to the Tacoma News Tribune's site or the Everett Herald's site. The TNT has archived stories on
MI Yuniesky Betancourt,
MI Jose Lopez, and
C Ryan Christianson, while the Herald has been running stories on
RHP Rick Guttormson,
SS Matt Tuiasosopo, and
RHP Felix Hernandez. As an aside on the Tui article, I'm almost hoping that Justin Upton doesn't slip to us in the draft, if only because it will keep the stock "reminds some of Alex Rodriguez" phrase out of the papers.
Jeff at Lookout Landing has dug up some additional stats and info on
Yuniesky Betancourt. It would appear that the offensive numbers of Cuba players are rather skewed, for a variety of reasons, and that the league doesn't compare as nicely to the majors as one would like. All the more reason to leave him in double-A for a while and see how he fares.
I've seen confirmation recenlty that Jorge Campillo has received his P1 work visa and has been added to the 40-man roster, while Travis Blackley moves to the 60-day DL. This was resolved a bit quicker than I thought it would be, so those listening on the radio will have the added bonus of getting the chance to hear Campillo in "A" games from the get-go.
'Til You're Blue in the Face has a nice report on
Jeremy Reed which really goes into more detail than I'd care to muster at this point. Those looking to learn as much as they can about him without digging through the archives here or elsewhere, this is the best opportunity you'll have for a while.
Over at the SportSpot forums, Steve Nelson (formerly of Mariners Wheelhouse) and I have been
discussing draft tendencies with regard to first basemen. For example, did you realize the Jim Thome as a shortstop? Shocking, but true. Check it out if you're interested, and while you're there, take a look at the
Grandpa at ST thread, which has some of the best ST coverage you'll find out there. Just be warned that it's likely to kill a few hours of your time rather quickly.
Also on the draft topic, Derek Zumsteg has a piece up in the PI on the
M's draft history and possible candidates for this year's pick. A good read, and definately a lot more information than you'll get anywhere else at this stage of the game.
USAToday has an article on the
possible resurgence of pitching in the coming years, which has the typical Felix reference you've come to expect by now.
Baseball America has released a top 100 prospects list that has
Felix Hernendez coming in at #2 (behind Mauer),
Jeremy Reed at #33,
Shin-soo Choo at #51, and Clint Nageotte at #73. In additon, they'll have a live chat at 2pm EST tomorrow.
To close on an off-topic note, Angels top draft pick RHP Jered Weaver will likely be headed back to the draft, as the Halos have reportedly
cut off negotiations with him. I don't think I'd consider drafting him, but it's interesting nonetheless.
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