posted by Jay Y. @ 2:20 PM

38. Shin-Soo Choo- OF- Seattle Mariners- 22

Giving someone the title of “five-tool talent” is extremely high praise, meaning the player excels in contact, power, speed, arm strength and defense. Some have mentioned that discipline, or selectivity should be named a sixth tool, and if so, Choo will then become the minors’ second-best six-tool talent (behind Jeremy Hermida in Florida). The tool I’m most worried about in Choo’s bag-o-skills is power, as his slugging conveniently rose in the hitter lover’s Texas League, with a little help from his friend the triple. Safeco tends to hurt those type of players, though I think it’s safe to say that in the very least, Choo undoubtedly possesses “gap power.” Anyway, the rest of the tools are securely in place, though Choo still remains a little behind Jeremy Reed on the depth chart. That should change this year, and Choo could get an opportunity to make what I think would be the first two-player, Asian-born outfield in history.

43. Jeremy Reed- OF- Seattle Mariners- 24

Meet the perfect example of the dilemma between weighing the 2004 season with that of 2003. I’m usually a “What have you done for me lately” type, but to Jeremy Reed that might not apply. The 2003 WTNY Player of the Year, Reed had a season that any prospect would be jealous of. In 2004, Reed regressed, falling below the prospect status of Shin-Soo Choo from his new organization, and Brian Anderson from his old.

Much of the plate discipline that one enshrined Reed in sabermetric culture was not apparent this season. While his 57 walks expressed as a raw number are intriguing, it hides the fact that 30% of those were the product of six games in May. So in his other 110 games, Reed walked just 42 times. This is not terrible, but also not terribly far from the likes that are criticized for this trait. My guess is that he’ll one day return to 2003 form, but only have always taking a while to digest his new league.

Another possible stopgap in Reed’s quest to become a Major League regular will be his lack of power. Many, including blogger extraordinaire Dave Cameron, are unsure that Reed will be able to play centerfield defensively. This leaves the corners as Reed’s future stomping grounds, positions where contact and baserunning fall behind power on the priority list. This could be quite problematic for a player that did not hit a home run until late May (145 AB), and even had a 20-game extra-base hitless streak. Put those skills in Safeco field, and Reed is far from Lenny Dykstra.

But don’t let me be overly critical of Jeremy, who I still think (and proved in September) will help a Major League roster. His contact skills are fantastic, with a 15.7 K% the only time over twelve all season. His average was way down, but I think he has the makings of a .250 hitter. His slugging should be about equivalent to what it was May-August: .418. For him to be a useful player under those circumstances, he must have an OBP above .346 to have a .260 GPA, and .390 for a .280 GPA. Look for something in the middle, which won’t keep him a Mariner long.

posted by Jay Y. @ 1:42 PM

What are the crucial distinctions that cause so much more enthusiasm for Felix Hernandez than Matt Cain? I know you like Cain and talk about him very respectfully as one of the best pitching prospects, but he never seems to generate the passionate praise that Hernandez does. Why? Also, my take is that Cain felt the long season last August, resulting in his series of poor outings right at the end. With his injury in 2003, 2004 was by far the longest of his career. Would you agree?

Roger Munter
Germantown, Md.

Ah, a third straight Ask BA with a Felix Hernandez-related question . . .

As part of the Prospect Handbook, several of us BA editors compile our personal Top 50 Prospects lists. No one who reads Ask BA will be surprised that I ranked Hernandez as the top pitching prospect in the game. I put Cain fourth, with Adam Miller and Chad Billingsley in between him and Hernandez.

There's not much difference between Hernandez and Cain, but I do clearly prefer Hernandez. The biggest advantage Hernandez has is that he's 18 months younger. He has no history of arm trouble, while Cain had a stress fracture in his elbow in 2003. Hernandez also has better command and a better changeup, not to mention the slider that's supposed to be his best pitch if the Mariners allow him to throw it.

Cain obviously has a lot going for him. He already has pitched well in Double-A at age 19, though his control slipped a notch at that level. He has two power pitches, a 93-97 mph fastball and a curveball, and plenty of time to refine that changeup. He's far and away the best prospect in the Giants system, and he was fully healthy in 2004. I do agree that he just got tired at the end of the season, pitching 159 innings after totaling 93 in his first two years as a pro.

posted by Jay Y. @ 1:08 PM