Mariner Minors
Saturday, January 22, 2005
  News Around the Minors (1/22/05)

A number of these are old links, but there's still a good amount to catch up on.

MLB.com has put together a story on Matt Tuiasosopo, who was one of many prospects to get a non-roster invite to the big league camp. Quoth new manager Mike Hargrove, "We'll try to get everyone some at-bats. They are not going to be there to collect meal money and get a suntan." Tui seems prepared for as much, seeing as how there have been reports of him working out at Safeco for some time now.

George Sherrill and Norm Charlton have recently passed through Pasco on their 2005 Mariners Winter Caravan route. Sid informs me that George was already down in Peoria working out prior to that.

A Florida newspaper is listing Jeremy Reed as one of the top five rookies to watch next season.

The Wisconsin Post-Crescent has a story on new Timber Rattlers manager Scott Steinmann. Steinmann is not new to the managerial gig, as he has been the manager of the Mariners Peoria affiliate in previous years. Nor is he new to Wisconsin, having worked as a hitting coach with the Rattlers and even playing with them during his career. This link comes via Leone For Third, and they had been sent the link by Steve of the now inactive Mariners Wheelhouse.

The Everett Aquasox sale has been approved. Ownership of the team has gone from the Sperandios family to the Carfagna family. The Aquasox stadium agreement has also been extended another five years, keeping the team in Everett at least until 2010.

Finally, Claxton Shield play kicked off in Australia yesterday. Though there are few Mariners prospects represented, Tim Auty got a start with New South Wales and went 1-3 in what would become a 3-0 victory over Queensland. Former Mariner prospect Ryan Rowland-Smith also went four innings in his start, giving up four hits, walking one, and striking out four.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2005
  Wait 'Til Next Year's 45-31 Prospects

Bryan Smith has posted the next part of his list and this time around, the M's have two representatives...
38. Shin-Soo Choo- OF- Seattle Mariners- 22

Giving someone the title of “five-tool talent” is extremely high praise, meaning the player excels in contact, power, speed, arm strength and defense. Some have mentioned that discipline, or selectivity should be named a sixth tool, and if so, Choo will then become the minors’ second-best six-tool talent (behind Jeremy Hermida in Florida). The tool I’m most worried about in Choo’s bag-o-skills is power, as his slugging conveniently rose in the hitter lover’s Texas League, with a little help from his friend the triple. Safeco tends to hurt those type of players, though I think it’s safe to say that in the very least, Choo undoubtedly possesses “gap power.” Anyway, the rest of the tools are securely in place, though Choo still remains a little behind Jeremy Reed on the depth chart. That should change this year, and Choo could get an opportunity to make what I think would be the first two-player, Asian-born outfield in history.

43. Jeremy Reed- OF- Seattle Mariners- 24

Meet the perfect example of the dilemma between weighing the 2004 season with that of 2003. I’m usually a “What have you done for me lately” type, but to Jeremy Reed that might not apply. The 2003 WTNY Player of the Year, Reed had a season that any prospect would be jealous of. In 2004, Reed regressed, falling below the prospect status of Shin-Soo Choo from his new organization, and Brian Anderson from his old.

Much of the plate discipline that one enshrined Reed in sabermetric culture was not apparent this season. While his 57 walks expressed as a raw number are intriguing, it hides the fact that 30% of those were the product of six games in May. So in his other 110 games, Reed walked just 42 times. This is not terrible, but also not terribly far from the likes that are criticized for this trait. My guess is that he’ll one day return to 2003 form, but only have always taking a while to digest his new league.

Another possible stopgap in Reed’s quest to become a Major League regular will be his lack of power. Many, including blogger extraordinaire Dave Cameron, are unsure that Reed will be able to play centerfield defensively. This leaves the corners as Reed’s future stomping grounds, positions where contact and baserunning fall behind power on the priority list. This could be quite problematic for a player that did not hit a home run until late May (145 AB), and even had a 20-game extra-base hitless streak. Put those skills in Safeco field, and Reed is far from Lenny Dykstra.

But don’t let me be overly critical of Jeremy, who I still think (and proved in September) will help a Major League roster. His contact skills are fantastic, with a 15.7 K% the only time over twelve all season. His average was way down, but I think he has the makings of a .250 hitter. His slugging should be about equivalent to what it was May-August: .418. For him to be a useful player under those circumstances, he must have an OBP above .346 to have a .260 GPA, and .390 for a .280 GPA. Look for something in the middle, which won’t keep him a Mariner long.

I share his opinion on Choo possibly passing Reed on the depth chart in a year or so, but Choo remains in a state where it's hard to say he's broken out, as I've said before. As for Reed, being a .250 hitter is a pretty harsh assessment, and I'd probably say more along the lines of .270, but it's a difference of opinion.

In non-prospect news, the Seattle Times put up a piece on the Villone contract that included some NRI rumors, which include Sele, Astacio, Reichart, and the possibility of some Osuna, Oliver, Groom, and Sparks on the side. This all coming after we apparently sign Ricky Guitterez, continuing an odd fixation with former WS winning players who probably won't hit that much with the M's. I'm half kidding on that one.

Osuna should be given a major league contract by someone, and the idea that we're considering some of these guys over him is crazy, but then again, parts of this list look like the rumor mill from three or four years ago. Yuck.

For more on this, I endorse the post on Leone For Third.
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  Ask BA and Even More Felix

In an ongoing attempt to defeat all who might be taking Felix too lightly, someone's submitted another question to Ask BA, this time bringing up the old Matt Cain vs. Felix debate...
What are the crucial distinctions that cause so much more enthusiasm for Felix Hernandez than Matt Cain? I know you like Cain and talk about him very respectfully as one of the best pitching prospects, but he never seems to generate the passionate praise that Hernandez does. Why? Also, my take is that Cain felt the long season last August, resulting in his series of poor outings right at the end. With his injury in 2003, 2004 was by far the longest of his career. Would you agree?

Roger Munter
Germantown, Md.


Ah, a third straight Ask BA with a Felix Hernandez-related question . . .

As part of the Prospect Handbook, several of us BA editors compile our personal Top 50 Prospects lists. No one who reads Ask BA will be surprised that I ranked Hernandez as the top pitching prospect in the game. I put Cain fourth, with Adam Miller and Chad Billingsley in between him and Hernandez.

There's not much difference between Hernandez and Cain, but I do clearly prefer Hernandez. The biggest advantage Hernandez has is that he's 18 months younger. He has no history of arm trouble, while Cain had a stress fracture in his elbow in 2003. Hernandez also has better command and a better changeup, not to mention the slider that's supposed to be his best pitch if the Mariners allow him to throw it.

Cain obviously has a lot going for him. He already has pitched well in Double-A at age 19, though his control slipped a notch at that level. He has two power pitches, a 93-97 mph fastball and a curveball, and plenty of time to refine that changeup. He's far and away the best prospect in the Giants system, and he was fully healthy in 2004. I do agree that he just got tired at the end of the season, pitching 159 innings after totaling 93 in his first two years as a pro.

Seriously, guys, give poor Jim a break on this one. Let's hold off the Felix questions for a while... then drag out Ismael Ramirez or whomever if you really feel that it hasn't been addressed by that time. I hope for Jim's sake that he answers those questions on his own when they release their own top prospects list.
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A closer look at the minor league system of the Seattle Mariners baseball club.

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2006 Minor League Splits
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2005 M's Minor League Review

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Charts and Data:
2004 Minor League Hitting Review
2004 Minor League Pitching Review


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2003 Prospect Lists:
Rotoworld Top 100 Prospects
Rotoworld Top 10 Mariners Prospects
The Minors First Top 100 Prospects
Inside The Park's 21-30 Mariners Prospects
On Deck Baseball's Mariners Prospect Rankings
On Deck Baseball's Future 500
On Deck Baseball's Future 500 (AL Only)
Wait Til Next Year's Top 50 Prospects
Wait Til Next Year's 51-90 Prospects
The Sports Network's Top 10 Mariners Prospects
Creative Sports' Top 10 Mariners Prospects
CBS Sportsline's Top AL West Prospects
FoxSports.com's Top 10 Mariners Prospects
MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects
Seattle PI's Top 15 Mariners Prospects
2003 Runs Created (Current system players)
2003 Runs Created (New acquisitions)
2003 Secondary Avg. (Current system players)
2003 Secondary Avg. (New acquisitions)
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2003 K/BB Charts (New acquisitions)

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