Mariner Minors
The final transcript on the Pacific Coast League is now up, and yours truly got a question in this time. Let's see what they had to say on the M's prospects...
Q: Bob Sakamano from NY, NY asks:
I have two ex-Huskers, Dan Johnson and Jamal Strong. They seem to have accomplished everything at AAA, so I was wondering when you think they will get their chances and how good do you think they will be?
A: Jim Callis: I agree on Johnson. He's ready to give the A's at least the same production that they get from Erubiel Durazo and Scott Hatteberg, so I bet Oakland declines to offer Durazo arbitration. Strong hasn't been able to stay healthy though, and the Mariners are hoping Jeremy Reed is their center fielder of the future. Seattle also has some expensive outfielders, so Strong looks like he'll have to settle for being a reserve.
Q: Joseph Y. from InsideThePark.com asks:
Thanks for doing the chat, as usual Jim. How far has Travis Blackley's star fallen? He said he didn't have his good changeup all year, but was doing fine anyway. Then he hit the big leagues, nibbled a lot for even a control guy, and things fell apart from there. How do you think this affects his future with the club?
A: Jim Callis: Blackley's star has fallen a little, though the Mariners still have a lot of faith in him. Blackley's velocity fell to the mid-80s in the majors, so his fastball didn't have enough separation from his other pitches. That left him no margin for error, and he made a lot of mistakes up in the strike zone--and they got punished. He's still one of the top pitching prospects in the system, but needs to get his fastball and changeup back and be more aggressive.
Q: jason from salem, or asks:
With Jose Lopez's promotion, is he a permanent fixture at SS for the Mariners or will Adam Jones push him to another position in a couple years?
A: Jim Callis: A .232 average and .630 OPS in Seattle shouldn't make Lopez a permanent fixutre yet. He has an impressive array of tools and he's very young, but he's going to have to hit more than that. He's still a better hitter and defender than Adam Jones at this point, though. The Mariners do have a number of other talented shortstop prospects as well, so Lopez will have to pick it up with the stick.
Q: Russ from NY asks:
Mr. Callis, it's actually the 16th chat. Now that all of the lists have been put out, here's a question: You have to make a team and you can only choose one player out of the 16 #1 prospects, who do you choose?
A: Jim Callis: But we combined the Arizona League and Gulf Coast League chats, so it indeed has been 15! As for your question, I'll take Felix Hernandez, No. 1 in both the California League and the Texas League.
Q: Shawn from Seattle asks:
Do you think Ryan Christianson has a future in MLB or have injuries ruined him?
A: Jim Callis: Injuries have marred the former first-round pick's last three seasons, restricting his development, so it's hard to project him as more than a big league backup at this point.
Q: Eric from Los Angeles asks:
Clint Nageotte didn't look espically sharp as a starter for the M's this season. Aside from being the league leader in sweating do the M's now look to groom him to be a closer in waiting?
A: Jim Callis: Most outside clubs thing the Mariners should give up on the idea of Nageotte as a starter and just let him throw be a power reliever with a killer slider. But Seattle still thinks he can refine his changeup and command to become a starter.
Q: Blair from Angel Comeback-ville asks:
Hi Jim, great chat so far! Madritsch is way down on the list but I think he's where he belongs. He looked great against some really good teams down the stretch (Angels, A's, Red Sox), and he seems to have that chip on his shoulder a top of the rotation guy should. The M's have talked about making him a reliever. Why would they do that to one of their best starters? His lack of a breaking ball? I like him better as a starter.
A: Jim Callis: Though he telegraphs his changeup, big league hitters haven't hit it, and as long as they don't he'll stay in the rotation. If they adjust to it, his lack of a breaking ball may push him to the pen, where his aggressive nature would serve him well. I won't put a 28-year-old on a league prospect list too often, but he earned it.
Everyone was out in full forces this time around, so there's a lot to cover. For reference, in the question about #1s, that's Felix over guys like Kotchman, Upton, Wright, Marte, Joel Guzman, Jeff Francouer, Delmon Young, Brian Dopriak... the list goes on. Another thing that impresses me is that the organization seems to like the idea of sticking with Nageotte as a starter, despite some comments by our former manager, which is good to see.
BA's review is over, I'm still going though until the next big set of prospect lists. Monday I'll have an AFL review up at ITP, spaking of which, earlier today I got confirmation from his brother that, yes, Brett Evert is coming out of the 'pen in tonight's game. There were rumors of a possible injury to Bugs, but I can't confirm anything of the sort. After I'm done with the AFL review, I'll get a minor league offensive review and a pitching review together, but since I've been sick, I've fallen behind on a few things and can't promise it on Monday as well.
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Well, it's late Thursday which means we're down the PCL, the final league in Baseball America's top 20 review. Apparently, the rules still go by enough appearances to qualify in that league and disregard things like rookie status, so this list has a few more Rainiers than you might expect. Jose Lopez comes in at #5, Jeremy Reed at #6, Clint Nageotte places as #11 and Bobby Madritsch rounds out the list as #18.
Lopez was voted as the PCL's most exciting player, particularly for his power potential. Same concerns as previous mentioned at short (tweener shortstops? well, not in this case), but the kid still has solid instincts and is better than Aurilia.
Nags is mentioned as having a fastball that can touch 97, which is a bit higher than I've heard. His lack of third pitch still seems to be a concern for some projecting him in the rotation, which seems to be the primary reason he's not ranked higher. Another fact that they didn't seem to mention, but I have heard that he lost a bit of velocity on his fastball partway through the year before having the back issues, so that may have affected him more than is documented.
Mads, well, what can you say? They don't think much of his breaking ball due to his arm action, but you're always going to get praise for the way he approaches hitters. There is some praise for the changeup, and notes that righties hit .186 off him in Triple-A, though they misquote the stats after that; they hit .237 off him in the big leagues, it was lefties that hit .220. The comment on his breaking ball intrigues me, but I heard in the post-game interview after his complete game that Price had shown him a way to tighten up the slider so it bites a little more, so perhaps its something that he could still improve on.
Jim Callis will be taking questions at 11 PT, 2 ET tomorrow. I expect some Blackley questions in there, but any other Rainiers questions are great too.
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Now you see them, now you don't... Continuing the earlier idea of current M's prospects getting recognition in their former league, CF Jeremy Reed pops up as number five in the International League top 20. Not much new on him in the article itself, more walks than strikeouts, the usual concern for tweener OFs, but the chat today yielded this gem...
Q: Max from Ottawa, Canada asks:
Of Kubel, Reed, and Rios, who has the best chance of making an immediate and meaningful impact in 2005? Who has the highest long-term upside? And who's going to be the dud of the group?
A: Chris Kline: Most meaningful impact next season: Reed. I'm not going to say any one of these players is going to be a dud, but if I had to rank them in terms of impact, I'd go Reed, Kubel, Rios.
Good to hear, especially considering there were some out there who wanted to grab Rios at the start of the year.
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As Tod pointed out in a comment,
SS Michael Morse was in the Southern League top 20 as #16 at Baseball America.
Morse is noted as having 17 HR in 2004, one short of his career total to this point, but an interesting note they make is that there are scouts and managers in the league who believe he can stay at short for now, and this comes after seeing him on a daily basis. Not that we don't have other players who are perhaps more likely to stick there, but its an interesting perspective nonetheless.
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The Arizona Fall League kicked off last night with the Peoria Javelinas losing to the Grand Canyon Rafters 14-3. RF Shin-Soo Choo was 1-4 with a HR and two RBI, while SS Michael Morse was 0-3 before being pinch hit for.
This year, the M's prospects on the Peoria Javelinas aren't quite as interesting as past years, Choo and maybe Morse aside. RHP Jon Huber, who was the PTBNL in the Dave Hansen trade will be starting tonight. LHP Jared Thomas is a lefty reliever with a little more stuff than most lefties in our system, though he's coming off a sub-par year. 3B Greg Dobbs will be looking to regain his line drive stroke, and who knows, maybe he'll take some walks too. The third pitcher spot varies depending on who you're talking to. Baseball America and most other sites are reporting that its RHP Chris Buglovsky, who was acquired when we sent RHP Allan Simpson to the Rockies earlier this year. But recently, MLB.com has been listing our third pitcher as RHP Brett Evert. Evert was snatched from the Braves when they had to DFA him, but he was in turn DFA'd by us to get C Rene Rivera on the roster. You may remember him from his three at-bats and three innings behind the plate. If Evert is there, that means he's been re-signed and slipped through waivers. He has a nasty curveball and COULD have an outside chance of making next year's bullpen depending on if he gets back on track again, emphasis on could. If it is Evert, I'm probably slightly more interested, but regardless, I'll be covering the AFL for InsideThePark and weekly recaps should be up on Sunday or Monday.
And for those curious about the other league, Dominican Winter League starts up Oct. 22nd, Mexican League on Oct. 11th, Puerto Rican League on Nov. 16th, and Venezuelan Winter League on Oct. 14th.
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The
chat transcipt for the Texas League Top 20 is now up... relevant questions for M's fans...
Q: Tom McCullough from York PA asks:
Jeremy Brown at Midland and Ryan Christianson at San Antonio: are they still major league catcher prospects? Thanks. Tom McCullough. York PA
A: John Manuel: Tom, thanks for another good question. Christianson is a guy I'm rooting for; he's just 23 and he showed this year that he can still hit. He's had numerous shoulder problems . . . the Mariners have a hole at catcher still, but we still need to see how his defense comes back after another year. I have a question about Brown that I'll get to later.
Q: Nate from Denver, CO asks:
What seperates a guy like Carlos Quentin from Shin-Soo Choo?? The rankings for the CA league indicated Quentin has a pretty good glove. Rankings for the TL did not seem to indicate quite the same thing. Is it defense that seperates these two? Who would you compare Quentin too?
A: John Manuel: Choo is a better all-around player . . . he's a true five-tool guy. Quentin projects to hit for more power for most, though I'm not 100 percent sure of that. Quentin played in two great hitters' parks this year and slugged .549. Choo played in a pitcher's park and slugged .462. They're the same age. I do think Quentin should hit for more big league power, but I see Choo as a guy who can hit .300 with 20-30 steals and 15-25 homers while also being an above-average defender (vs. average for Quentin).
Q: Bill from Ft. Worth asks:
Hey John, great chat as usual. It was a frustrating year for Ervin Santana, but what is his outlook for next year? If healthy, is he right up there with Hernandez?
A: John Manuel: Thanks for the kind words, Bill. Santana's outlook is tough. The background noise on him was that he thought he was more hurt than the Angels did, and the organization wasn't terribly happy with him this year. It seems there's a school of thought out there that he's soft. I know that when he has pitched, he has shown frontline stuff and at times has dominated. I think no one is in Hernandez' class right now aside from maybe Matt Cain and maybe Chad Billingsley.
Q: Eric from KC asks:
Will Sergio Santos and the possibility of Stephen Drew being in the Diamondbacks organization affect the possibilities of drafting Justin Upton next June? Do most scouts think that Sergio can stay at SS in the majors or will ne move to 3B?
A: John Manuel: Great question. I don't think that has much to do with it, since Santos really isn't a SS and Drew might not be either; the same can be said of Justin Upton, who may be a CF down the line. However, who knows who will be in charge of the Diamondbacks' draft next year, after this ownership change? If it's still Mike Rizzo, it's hard to see him using the No. 1 pick on a prep player, as his track record leans heavily to the college side.
Q: JOE C from BOSTON asks:
Is Felix Hernandez the real deal? I know his stuff is impeccable and maybe the best since Mark Prior, or better. But what about his character? What major leaguer does he compare to?
A: John Manuel: Is this the first Felix Hernandez question? Shocking. As for his character . . . is this a presidential debate? If you mean his makeup, I've heard nothing but good things about Felix as far as being a good guy and good teammate; Shin-Soo Choo for one spoke on this subject at the Futures Game. He's kind of cocky in the sense that he knows he's good, but that's generally accepted as a good thing. All the comparisons are to Dwight Gooden; Felix is going to have to stay healthy but otherwise there are few if any caveats with this guy. He's the best pitching prospect in the minors.
Q: Ian from NJ asks:
You can't go through a chat session and not mention Felix Herandnez so... His fastball already can reach 98 and many say that as he matures and fills out he could hit triple-digits. He is a big kid though and much more filling out won't be that good for him. Has his velocity capped or is there really more room for improvement?
A: John Manuel: Good call Ian . . . I did mention him early, but even JJ Cooper had to remark on the lack of Felix questions. I think you raise a good point. I have had so many people tell me that they think he can throw harder if he's in a bit better shape and gets stronger; his mechanics are already pretty smooth. I guess we should phrase it more that with refinements, he can pitch at that 96-98 instead of just touch it, and he could start touching 99-100. Yes, I do think that is realistic, based on the info I've had on him.
PCL is coming on Friday. Props to Ian for getting his question answered, at least I think its the same Ian. I'd like to add more on the possiblity of getting Upton, but I'm a little under the weather (haven't been this sick in years) so I'm going to hold off on that.
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The
Top 20 Prospects in the Texas League are now up at Baseball America. San Antonio wasn't exactly a powerhouse this year, but Felix is at #1 yet again and RF Shin-Soo Choo makes #4.
Kid K, whom we're already familiar with, is described as having the same stuff whether 0-0 or 2-0 in the count, and that the only things he really needs to work on are holding runners and fielding. Not that bad.
Choo, on the other hand, is getting the usual five-tool descriptions, and they are now comparing him to Ichiro in his speed, arm, and hitting approach. Oddly enough, Choo also wore #51 this year and looks up to Ichi, though it's not his favorite number, or so I read in an article (#38?). Scouts seem to think he could hit for more power, but prefers to use the whole field.
The chat will be coming at 11 PT, 2 ET, so heads up on that.
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